Pair has been in an uptrend since October '15. Case could be made by Elliot technicians that the pair has just completed an impulse pattern - five waves as shown by the labels. (I am not EW pro by any means, still there is a five wave pattern.)
And with a bearish engulfing, break of the upper BB and Stochastic moving down with a signal line cross, we may have confirmation of this analysis.
Feeling Frisky? Go now! I will short this pair Monday, opting to wait though the weekend and after the news events Friday opting to not hold any positions over the weekend and my trading rules keep me out of the market on news days.
The pair is going down for a least a 200 pip correction.
Comments
AuthenticTrader
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Since my original posting we have seen this pair perform exactly as I predicted, except that the wave A was actually more than 500 pips. Wednesday we had a bearish engulfing complete, with a BB tag at R1 level .7400 signaling wave B has completed. Wave C has started! We need to ride this all the way down until we get a Zig Zag bottom, Bullish candle reversal, and a tag of the lower BB. I'm good for 150 pips so far!
IMDB
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Def on daily it's new trend down. on H4 it's still going to come back up for a bit before starting trend down. It might go down on 15M chart but ultimately it's headed up 1st.
AuthenticTrader
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@IMDB, and all. Update the high at .7400 completed wave B. We are now in wave C in this correction. I traded the engulfing that completed on Wednesday for a nice for 150 pips! We can keep jumping in and out on this until we get a reversal set up indicating completion of the correction wave.
AuthenticTrader
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245 pips down, so take profits or close 1/2 position and move stop to breakeven. Price is bouncing off R1 level and may be heading back up to start wave B.
See original comment where I put forth the idea that "the pair is going down for at least a 200 pip correction".
AuthenticTrader
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100 pips down.....now a slight Intraday correction then back down to complete Wave A of the correction. Reason. On 1 hour chart we have two Bullish candle reversals at resistance a piecing pattern and an engulfing. They have both tagged lower BB and Stochastic has reversed. So Intraday trade 1 hour charts must wait till next swing high, a candle reversal, a tag of Upper BB, and Stochastic move. Plus we have some Fed speaking today. Still favoring the move back down but waiting for good entry.
dchua1969
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Mark 9:23 - It is possible to those who believe in HIM. Imagine the excitement and joy you would have when the 200pip as you predicted would come true. How would you celebrate ? Where and with who? what would they say ? Sometimes, when we , humans rely too much on human created indicators (and they keep on coming) and make sense of man -made news (Brexit , election,etc) that we get lost in the jungle.
Have faith in your vision and it will come true. All the best !
AuthenticTrader
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dchua, Thank you for your encouraging words. I just happened to be sitting here when you posted so thought I would reply. Trading as a believer is exciting and humbling. We understand that He truly is the only reason we have success. He created the markets, He controls them. The markets are His...he owns the cattle on a thousand hills! He created the patterns and indicators and the wisdom behind all market analysis, as He did the, laws, rules and patterns that rule the world we live in. We can only chose to operate in line with rules, as we trust in Him. "We can't predict the what the markets will do( pretending to be God), we can only do what the market is telling us to do" ( Steve Nison nugget) I celebrate my trading success and failures by giving all glory to Him who gives and takes away. He wants us to act and to use the markets to gain capital for the advancement of His Kingdom. If we are going to be in the markets, we must do so as we submit to His Lordship. It's not our capital, it is HIS! Prayerfully consider how we can use the market gains He has given us to advance His kingdom. Thank you again and God bless you.
AuthenticTrader
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Yep, sometimes it is tough to follow your own trading rules! But no trading on Friday's or news days is one of my rules...and we all know discipline is key. Anyways, looks like we have the start of the reversal...it's 86 pips so far. There will be time. But good for you who acted today! Nice weekend all.