OIL INDIA LTD – Structure Tiring as Crude Starts Firing?

Jun 15

What began as a heroic rally from ₹42 to ₹767 in a powerful impulse now finds itself wobbling under its own weight. OIL INDIA LTD’s chart tells a story of exhaustion — both structurally and contextually — just when crude oil is flexing again on the global stage.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions and war-like murmurs pushing crude prices higher, the Indian oil sector may be sailing into headwinds. And this isn’t just a macro hunch — the waves themselves are flashing caution.

After a Wave 1 climax near ₹767.90, price action has shifted into a corrective mode. I interpret the ongoing structure as a W-X-Y double zigzag, and within it, a key event unfolded: a classic ABC flat correction, beginning in March.

The April rally — which at first glance looks like a fresh impulse — is in fact the C leg of that flat. While it did unfold in 5 waves, the fifth wave formed an ending diagonal, complete with overlapping internals and fading momentum. This could be the last gasp.

Zooming into the 4H chart, the rise from ₹325 to ₹489 fits neatly into a corrective framework, not an impulsive one. That makes ₹489 a crucial invalidation level. If price stays below it, we likely begin Wave Y of the broader correction — a move that could push OIL INDIA back toward or even below ₹325.

However, if price breaches ₹489 and sustains, that’s your early signal that this entire bearish setup is off, and a new bullish sequence may be unfolding instead.

The stop-loss is tight, the downside wide. If this count holds, the risk-reward setup is highly favorable.

Further analysis continues in the notes below — covering multi-timeframe wave counts, internal structures, and confluences from RSI, volume, and Bollinger Bands.

Jun 15

Note

Monthly Timeframe: Big Picture, Big Signals
At a glance, the monthly chart of OIL INDIA LTD captures a Elliott impulse: five clean waves up from the ₹42.33 lows, peaking at ₹767.90. That rally marked the end of a powerful Wave 1.

What followed is where things get interesting.

Rather than a quick correction, price action has turned complex — a likely W-X-Y double zigzag forming as Wave 2. The first leg (W) brought price sharply down to ₹328. The subsequent bounce to ₹489 (labeled as Wave X) unfolded through an ABC flat, with its C leg finishing in five waves — capped off by an ending diagonal that screamed exhaustion.

If this interpretation holds, the final leg — Wave Y — could now be in motion. And if so, we may be heading below ₹325 to complete the larger corrective structure.

This bearish technical setup coincides with a potential macro headwind: Crude oil prices have surged recently amid escalating geopolitical tensions. While rising crude generally benefits oil producers, Indian oil firms often bear regulatory pricing burdens and margin squeezes, especially during prolonged instability. This could amplify pressure on the stock. Thia monthly chart says Wave 2 may not be over.

Jun 15

Note

The 1-hour chart offers the forensic detail needed to confirm what the higher timeframes hinted at: that the rally into ₹489 wasn’t a new impulsive breakout, but the C leg of a flat correction — and within it, a highly telling structure unfolded.

We see a five-wave sequence climbing from ₹325 to ₹489. But this wasn’t an impulse. The overlapping internals and loss of momentum suggests an ending diagonal.

Before that, Wave ii took the form of a complex W-X-Y correction, adding to the corrective flavor of the entire move.

This ending diagonal into ₹489 is important — because such patterns often mark the termination of larger moves, not the start of them. In this case, it capped the C wave of a flat correction and — by extension — completed Wave X of the broader W-X-Y pattern from the higher timeframe.

Price has since started to roll over, and unless ₹489 is taken out, the odds now favor the beginning of Wave Y — likely a deeper decline, possibly beyond ₹325.

Jun 15

Note

Daily Timeframe: Momentum Says “Caution”
If the wave count wasn’t enough to stir concern, the daily indicators are joining in with warnings.

The price has just briefly pierced — the upper Bollinger Band, a classic sign of short-term overextension. Meanwhile, the RSI has pushed to a new high, but price has failed to follow — a signal that momentum may be outpacing actual strength, often seen near exhaustion zones.

This behavior often aligns with exhaustion patterns like the ending diagonal spotted on the 1-hour chart. Momentum rises into the peak, but price fails to follow through sustainably — a classic bull trap in the making.

Adding fuel to the signal, volume surged during the final rally — but this spike could represent climactic buying rather than fresh accumulation. The kind of candle that traps breakout chasers before the market quietly pulls the rug.

In short, while the RSI may flash strength, it’s coming at a time when wave structure and price extension say “tired.” When momentum and structure disagree, it’s usually structure that wins.

Jun 15

Note

Conclusion: The Setup is Bearish… Until Proven Otherwise

From the monthly wave structure to the micro-level ending diagonal, everything aligns toward a single outcome: OIL INDIA may not have completed its correction yet. What looks like a strong bounce was, in fact, the C leg of a flat — not a new impulse — and the structure now points to a final Wave Y leg unfolding.

Adding to that, overbought signals on the daily chart, stretched Bollinger Bands, and a volume spike into resistance all hint that this rally may have been its last breath — not the first step of a new leg up.

The level to watch is ₹489. That’s where the case for downside holds or collapses. If that level is taken out with conviction, this entire bearish narrative is invalidated, and a bullish sequence may already be underway.

But until then, the structure favors downside — and with such a tight invalidation level, the risk-to-reward setup is unusually favorable.

Price will guide us. Charts will be updated. But for now, the story appears to be entering its final bearish chapter.