PRAJIND Weekly Setup: Risk Factors and Risk Management

Jun 7

• Price above weekly 20 MA & 50 MA
• Pullback support holding: Made a tested the long term trendline and attracted good volumes and bounced back. Make a good move of 160 points (₹260-420). Has now reversed to test 20 WMA.
• Reversal was slow and took 6 weeks.
• Volumes: Has been high during the move from ₹260-420. Now again attracting volumes.
• The ₹400–405 zone is an important weekly breakout area. A weekly close above this region could open the path toward ₹430–450.
• First target is ₹447(basis Fib retracement)
• RSI. Just below 50 and RSI level is above RSI MA. Keep track. It should move above 50 soon.
• Key Levels
Level Zone
Strong Support ₹325–340
Intermediate Support ₹350–365
Resistance 1 ₹400–405
Resistance 2 ₹430–450

• Entry Conditions:
o Weekly candle closes above resistance 20 WMA
o Volume at least 1.5× average weekly volume
o RSI moves above 50 and continues to move towards 60-80
o EMA 20 > EMA 50
• Exit Conditions
o RSI crosses below 50
o Weekly close below EMA 20
o EMA 20 starts flattening and turns down
o Volume increases on price drops
• Macro Support: Govt is focussing of alternate fuel options and a large auto manufacturer has introduced a 2-fuel vehicle option. Praj Industries has significant exposure to:
o Ethanol and biofuel projects
o Energy transition and sustainability investments
o Industrial capex cycles
• Risk factors:
o Changing geopolitical scenario in gulf
o US economy and market performance
o Adverse Govt policies regarding Ethanol.
o Monsoon failure resulting drop in crop output.

Jun 11

Trade active

This set up becomes invalid if the price falls below Rs 330. May be there will be an opportunity@ 300 Later. But for the moment it becomes invalid.

The reasons could be many, but the major one is lack of any momentum in the overall market and chaotic geopolitical situation.