Fractal pattern downtrend is supported by strong bearish divergences on daily, weekly, and monthly time frames.
Comment
⋅
So, obviously my timing on the fractal was a bit off, but I'd say the market is still more-or-less locked into the pattern. If you look at the original pattern, there was an initial drop-off, which transitioned into sideways movement, and then transitioned into precipitous vertical drop which kicked off the real bear trend. The pattern we're in today dropped much more violently to the downside in the beginning, and therefore the transition into sideways movement (i.e. bear flag) has been more volatile as a side effect.
Based on both fractal analysis and otherwise, I expect a serious continuation to the downside into the low 170s sometime around Sept 11th.
Comment
⋅
This is the local top. Time to drop.
Trade active
⋅
^ September 12th turned out to be the exact day of the local top at $194.7 Personally targeting short to ~$163 zone before the end of November.
Reasons to short: - maybe fractal downtrend (but the final movement was a bit squirrelly) - maybe wonky H&S right shoulder (but the neckline is very steep) - maybe lower high (but this cycle might not be over yet) - Failed MACD upward cross on the 1M timeframe - Failed MACD upward cross on the 1W timeframe - Huge RSI downtrend resistance on several daily and weekly timeframes - Huge OBV downtrend resistance on several daily and weekly timeframes
[I'm purely a technical trader, but I'll dip my toe into the FA and political waters] ? Lack of obvious economic strength ? 10 year overextended bull market ? Overwhelming global debt bubble ? Trump impeachment fears ? China trade war fears
Reasons to long: - A mix of hidden bullish divergences in various timeframes