From last few trading sessions we are witnessing a big upside rally in broad market. Nifty 50 from low, made on 22 june recovered +7.5%. It is surprising that Nifty's most treatable player not recovered more than 3 % from recent lows.
On technical side 1) The inverted flag pattern is showing a short term down trend, 2) Prices are trading below 200 day moving average, 3) Reliance is not participating with broad market bull rally 4) Bad news (described below) 5) The support level it is holding is very crucial for trend change in medium term.
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Big Bad News
We have seen that how crude oil market of india got a boot by deregulation of prices. But suddenly after few days Govt. Increased taxes on diesel and petrol export significantly to curb the windfall gains of oil producing and refinery companies.
- The government imposed a Rs 6 per litre tax on exports of Petrol and Rs 13 per litre on exports of Diesel. - The government also imposed Rs 23,230 per tonne tax on domestic crude oil to take away windfall gains accruing to producers.
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Now what do you think who will impact the most from this modi govt. move. ?
Reliance yes your guess was correct because, reliace jamnagar two refineries were the top refineries of India with refining capacity of more than 35 MT.
- Reliance Jamnagar plant can process 1.36 million barrels of crude a day from two refineries, reliance surpassed all the refineries in the year of 2002 – 2003 in terms of volume processing and become biggest Indian Refiner. - Reliance export 80% of its output from Jamnagar refineries.
----------------------- Reliance was reaping the inflated prices of crude products. This move can decrease the margins significantly.
---------------------- NOTE : Quarterly results are scheduled this friday, so keenly watch the price movement and OI data.
Congratulations and well done for sharing your first idea with the community. Hope you will be having great experience.
Thanks for your contribution. From mod @Bravetotrade
LuckshyaGarg
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@Bravetotrade, I have also posted my ideas from time to time, why does no one congratulate me. :(
TRADEWITHFUN247
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@LuckshyaGarg, Improve your knowledge first. Do not work for instant glorification. If you are creating something worth, and if you think it is worth reading content so feel good about it, even if no one notices. That is the spirit of a creator.
@LuckshyaGarg, hope you are talking about parties of success celebration, rather than physical pleasure.
mydads_dna
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By my analysis it will go up tommorow! Let's see
BusyBhai
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@mydads_dna, I am not interested in buying, looking for downside opportunity. Let us see it breakdown or not.
LuckshyaGarg
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@BusyBhai, I know this pattern should work for downside but in my trading experience a breakout on the upside is usually even more explosive and worth trading. It's like a surprise move that takes away all the stops of short positions.
BusyBhai
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@LuckshyaGarg, see I don't think so, Do not get biased with buying or selling. Downside breakdown is also a surprise. See if you hold a stock you have a long position if you sell holdings you do not require margins, but if you find a buying opportunity you required to put margins first. In cash market sellings are very sharp because panic and no margin requirement create a big trigger.
Hope you will be having great experience.
Thanks for your contribution.
From mod @Bravetotrade