AbhishekHSinghCMT
Short

Reliance Industries - Will Insider Trading -End the thrust@1327

NSE:RELIANCE   RELIANCE INDS
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Latest news at 21:30 Hrs -

Source- Economic Times
Insider trading case: SEBI bars Reliance Industries from equity derivative trades in F&O for 1 year

In a landmark order, market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) today barred Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance IndustriesBSE 0.95 % Ltd (RIL) and 12 others from trading in equity derivative Future & Options markets for 1 year.

SEBI has ordered RIL to pay Rs 447 crore along with an annual interest of 12 per cent since November 2007 (around Rs 500 crore) as fine within 45 days.

Finding guilty in a seven-year long insider trading case, SEBI said the company made unlawful gains of Rs 513 crore through fraudulent trading in the F&O space in the securities of RIL's erstwhile listed subsidiary Reliance PetroleumBSE 0.34 %.

SEBI has found 13 companies including RIL guilty in Reliance Petroleum (RPL) insider trading case and has issued show cause notices to all the companies.

The 12 other entities are Gujarat Petcoke and Petro Product supply, Aarthik Commercials, LPG Infrastructure India, Relpol Plastic Products, Fine Tech Commercials, Pipeline Infrastructure India, Motech software, Darshan Securities, Relogistics (India), Relogistics (Rajasthan), Vinamara Universal Traders and Dharti Investment and Holdings.

Replying on the issue, RIL said trades in RPL shares were genuine and were bonafide transactions.


Technical Analysis-

The day when this thrust started - I knew that this thrust will die sooner or later & here it is news adding the spice. It is (W)- (X)-(Y) sequence - (X) had internal sharp wave-A & wave-B is triangle & current thrust is wave-C which has good chances to end at 1327 or close by if we get a bounce. A-B-C shall complete wave-(X)

At 1327- wave-C measures 38.2% of wave-A if you project wave-A distance from 1013 low where wave-e (circled) ended (assumption) or if wave-e ended at 930 then it measures 50% of wave-a distance at 1327 in larger Wave-X.

There is small confusion about wave-e (circled) ending at 930 or 1013 hence I have taken both scenario as mentioned above.

Next, Larger Wave-(Y) has started or will start & likely measures 61.8% of Larger Wave-(W) between 595-600 as the target zone.

Earlier Analysis
I had the view of Triangle in my 1st analysis done in Oct2016- the only difference was leg from 465 to 1268 was taken part of triangle(as first leg within the triangle) but later realized that wave-(X) got divided into wave-A -then wave-B (as triangle) & current wave-C which excited everyone was the thrust.

So, euphoria got created - see what happens post euphoria.

But I was clear moving above 1145- it could have exploded so I was stressing a lot & infact I also warned that reliance shorts cannot be taken if it sustains above 1045 mark - all my previous analysis they talk in detail as I never forget to mention the ruin point where the case could go against me or confirmation point for taking the trade.








Mar 25
Trade active: 21:48 Hrs 25th March2017

Source-Economic Times

Reliance Industries through its written and oral submissions before Sebi referred to its actions as 'hedging' to justify its scheme.

"The strategy of 'hedging', put forward as a defence by Noticee No.1(RIL) is nothing but a mirage," Sebi member G Mahalingam said. "While Noticee No.1 (RIL) has sought to depict a strategy of hedging, when one takes a closer look at what was actually done or intended to be done, the facade of hedge wanes off and exposes the hidden motive or strategy.

I find that Noticee No. 1 was not genuinely hedging the risk but was aiming to reap huge speculative profits by cornering futures positions and playing a fraud on the general investors and the market. This would amount to a well-planned, fraudulent and manipulative trading scheme in terms of the SEBI (PFUTP) Regulations, 2003."
Mar 25
Trade active: 21:55 Hrs 25th March2017

Last Price@1286

There could be support between 1190-1225 if holds then good we can expect bounce but if it trades more on downside even below 1190 then it could be a problem which can be procrastinated but cannot be eliminated completely.
Mar 31
Trade active: 12:48 Hrs 31st March2017

Last Price@1295

Bounces above 1225 from 1233 so it indicates downside has not started & one more leg upside is pending.
Mar 31
Trade active: 14:03 Hrs 31st March2017

Last Price@1331

Wow1- what a push from previous update at 1295
Apr 08
Trade active: 13:15 Hrs 8th April2017

Last Price@1406

Had a sharp upside move from 1300 -last update on 31st March2017 to new high@1449.

We will continue this post once this upside leg is finished. Currently seems there is something left on upside till 1130-1145 is intact on the downside.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
​Growth Director - India
http://in.tradingview.com
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India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
even if they have to pay up 1000 crores to settle the matter that is peanuts for an entity like reliance industries - but then they are not going to pay up without a fight - this may not be the end of the matter as they are likely to file an appeal in supreme court or wherever and drag it on for several more years or get it discharged- further what sebi has ordered is that reliance cannot engage in derivative trades for a year - not that reliance shares cannot be traded in derivative markets - i don't think that market would be affected to a great extent if reliance and its promoters do not trade for a year
Reply
@ananth1960, No one is bigger than markets
Reply
AJAYSHARMA AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, Social Mood . Loosing the ropes at tops and bottoms.
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KumarAbhilash ananth1960
@ananth1960, true, usd 44billion company, 1000cr is nothing for them
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All us honest folks are cheated by these thugs who make crores of rupees while us study hard and look at data in hope to make a few thousand. The action should have involved criminal charges with some arrests at the executive levels.
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well being technical analyst we should just watch price and volume,(we should not forget 8 years consolidation has been broken and market knows each and everything we retail just need to follow trend) for trading and as per price volume i dnt find any major correction , 3_4% correction always expected after such a fantastic up move(1080-1322).
entirely my view i may be wrong.
Reply
AJAYSHARMA KumarAbhilash
@KumarAbhilash, Expanded flats at market tops and X waves in corrections are the scum of the stock market. When ever a stock is coming out of a correction with increased volumes , sharp move and RSI in 60 - 65 zone I consider it as an X wave . This helps in putting stop losses . If the move is impulsive and stop loss is not hit and then I employ trailing stop loss . Reliance seems to be in a wave 4 of impulse C in (x). So at present short. But this impulse is not over . And this X wave can even go 1.618 times projected from wave A-B. But it is still and X wave I believe . I firmly support the view of Abhishek Singh.
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KumarAbhilash AJAYSHARMA
@AJAYSHARMA, thats why i said i may be wrong.
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Hi Abhishek . I too was surprised when wave e of the multi year triangle (wave B) crossed wave d. It was a triangle failure. So I re labelled just like you did .

I am taking 930 as end of wave e (circled) in wave B triangle . I believe wave (X) is a zigzag so C = 0.618 A OR = A or 1.618 A

Projecting from of A of (X) from end of B at 930 end of wave c and (X) could be

0.618 = 1434
1 = 1747
Historic high for Ril is 1657

I think the impluse in wave C of (X) is also not complete . It is in a sub wave 4 . At 38.2% retracement of subwave 3 of C of (X) wave 4 falls to 1209 and will also land at channel line .

From 1209 Fib cluster for wave 5 of C of (X) is at following levels

Equality with wave 1 = 1209 + 170 = 1379
0.382 from 1 - 3 would be 1363
0.618 1458

So if the 1363-1379 range passes then we should look at the 0.618 ie 1434 as the end of the zig zag (X)

There has to be a sharp upward movement to that area of 1400 + before the collapse . This should also correspond with end wave B of an expanded flat in Nifty taking it to a new high. I think
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13th week from December 26 2016, Fib number in play :-)
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