📊 TECHNICAL OVERVIEW-
Trend: Strong downtrend — lower highs, lower lows intact
Key level broken: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at ₹271.50 is lost
Next major support: ₹170–₹180 zone (0.786 Fib retracement)
📉 FUNDAMENTAL SNAPSHOT (FY2024–25)
Net Sales Growth: –8.57% YoY
PAT Growth: –18.75% YoY
P/E Ratio: 56.17 vs Industry Average: 22.69 → Expensive relative to peers
PEG Ratio: –4.23 (negative) → Earnings declining, valuation not justified
ROE: 19.42% → 14.01% (deteriorating)
Working Capital Cycle: 18 days → 23.38 days (efficiency declining)
✅ CREDIT & ORDER BOOK
CARE Rating: AAA; Stable → Zero default risk
Order Book: ₹87,000 Cr (massive pipeline)
Government Holding: 72.84%
⚠️ BUT: Margins compressed — PBILDT down from 6.27% to 5.62% due to shift from nomination-based to competitive bidding. Significant receivables stuck in JV disputes (incl. ₹889.95 Cr interest).
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 CONCLUSION: WAIT & WATCH
The business is solid. The stock is not — yet.
Market is re-pricing RVNL for negative earnings growth + stretched valuations.
📌 Bullish trigger to watch: Price sustains above ₹270–₹280
📌 Downside target: ₹170–₹180 (0.786 Fib) — potential reversal or base-building zone
Sellers are fully in control. No bottom-fishing until structure changes.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚡ NISM Certified Research Analyst |
For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered investment advice.
Trend: Strong downtrend — lower highs, lower lows intact
Key level broken: 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at ₹271.50 is lost
Next major support: ₹170–₹180 zone (0.786 Fib retracement)
📉 FUNDAMENTAL SNAPSHOT (FY2024–25)
Net Sales Growth: –8.57% YoY
PAT Growth: –18.75% YoY
P/E Ratio: 56.17 vs Industry Average: 22.69 → Expensive relative to peers
PEG Ratio: –4.23 (negative) → Earnings declining, valuation not justified
ROE: 19.42% → 14.01% (deteriorating)
Working Capital Cycle: 18 days → 23.38 days (efficiency declining)
✅ CREDIT & ORDER BOOK
CARE Rating: AAA; Stable → Zero default risk
Order Book: ₹87,000 Cr (massive pipeline)
Government Holding: 72.84%
⚠️ BUT: Margins compressed — PBILDT down from 6.27% to 5.62% due to shift from nomination-based to competitive bidding. Significant receivables stuck in JV disputes (incl. ₹889.95 Cr interest).
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 CONCLUSION: WAIT & WATCH
The business is solid. The stock is not — yet.
Market is re-pricing RVNL for negative earnings growth + stretched valuations.
📌 Bullish trigger to watch: Price sustains above ₹270–₹280
📌 Downside target: ₹170–₹180 (0.786 Fib) — potential reversal or base-building zone
Sellers are fully in control. No bottom-fishing until structure changes.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚡ NISM Certified Research Analyst |
For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered investment advice.
Trade active
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.