SBIN (4H): Mapping Wave C : 5-Wave Impulse v/s Complex Bounce

State Bank of India (SBIN) has been in a corrective phase since reaching its peak at 1,234.70. Looking closely at the 4-hour chart, the price action seems to be carving out a larger three-part correction (an ABC structure).

Right now, we are tracking the final leg of this move, which appears to be unfolding in a five-step downward sequence. Here is a neutral, step-by-step look at the two most likely paths ahead and the exact levels where this current outlook changes.

The Near-Term Paths: Green vs. Purple
The chart highlights two ways the market might move over the coming weeks. Both paths ultimately point toward the same major structural area below, but they take different routes to get there:

• The Green Path (Direct Drop): This scenario assumes the recent minor bounce near 978.80 was the entire fourth step (Wave iv). Because the bounce was shallow, it shows sellers are currently heavy. If this path continues, the price is likely already starting its final downward step (Wave v) directly toward the major support zone.
• The Purple Path (Deeper Bounce First): This scenario suggests the bounce needs more time to develop. The price could recover slightly higher to test the 1,000 to 1020 price range, which aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels. Once that temporary relief bounce finishes, the price would then turn downward for its final step.

The Critical Invalidation Line: 1,049.40
For this specific five-step downward count, the invalidation level is 1,049.40 (the low of the first downward step).

• If the price goes above 1,049.40: The structure changes completely. A move above this level invalidates the idea of a final drop. It would strongly indicate that the entire correction already finished early at the 933.90 low.
• The Exception (Ending Diagonal): The only way the price can cross 1,049.40 and still move lower later is if it forms a slow, overlapping, wedge-like pattern. We will only consider this complex scenario if the price action starts to behave that way. For now, 1,049.40 remains our main invalidation point.

The Major Support Cluster (880–912)
Both the green and purple paths converge on a major structural support zone between 880 and 912.

If the price reaches this zone, we will look for clear, confirmed bullish price action (such as strong rejection candles or reversal patterns) to signal a potential entry point.

The Big Picture After the Turn
Once the price tests the support cluster, the resulting upward move will likely lead to one of two macro developments:

1. A New Trend: The entire correction is over, and a fresh, long-term upward trend begins.
2. A Complex Correction (WXY): The bounce out of the support box is a temporary relief leg (Wave X), which will eventually lead to another leg down later in the year to complete a longer, multi-part correction.

By keeping an eye on the 1,049.40 invalidation level and waiting for clear confirmation in the 880–912 support zone, we can navigate the next structural move step-by-step.

Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own research and manage your risk carefully.