SpiceJet 2016 Diary- Critical Zone 54-55 Playing Major Role

When Spotted last at 65-67 in Year 2016- Updated that 54-55 is the key & a critical zone for the Spicejet-if gets broken, then It shall move in next leg down to complete the E-wave.

Critical Zone acted as support recently & it turns from recent low of 55.50 to current levels of 58- this stock is trapped- likely has great chances of moving down in the months ahead so let us hold.

This is how we moved in 2016

In below shown chart- click the chart & use load bar feature
Trade active: 11:25 Hrs 10th Jan2016

Last Price@64

Jumped from 54-55 -short term.

Trade active: 08:12 Hrs 18th Jan2017

Last Price@65

Moving above 67- likely it heads to 70-71 zone where it faces resistance from falling trendline

Trade active: 12:08 Hrs 22nd Jan2017

Last Price@63.80

As if now, 67 has acted resistance to recent upside move from 54-55 zone.
Trade active: 11:27 Hrs 15th Feb2017

Last Price@59

Look how 67 acted as resistance

Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
​Growth Director - TradingView India

YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYcnYveYBNLD-Qp54hvZogw

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Although respect technicals,but not a big fan.Believe in technofunda analysis.Fundamentally stock is at the cusp of a major upmove.Falling below the levels of even50 will unleash heavy buying as the sector as a whole is one of best performing sectors.And most impt this scrip is most underrated in the sector.Comparing the other 2 listed airlines,Spicejet is the only airline which is almost debtfree.WIth an expected revenue of at least 20%more than Q3fy16 we can expect a PAT of at least 300 crs.Nse listing on the cards,stock can give an upside of at least 30-40%coming months.This is my view.Moreover I have observed technicals works best in Nifty50 and large caps.I maybe wrong.
@PAV71, what about the macro factors? Crude/ ATF prices ? How do u take that into price consideration? Operations are ok, might be spicejet has come into good hands now. But aviation is not that bullish.
AbhishekHSinghCMT Prince_Kanodia
@Prince_Kanodia, I am a pure price action analyst & left fundamentals in 1st year itself in 2007-when I was starting into markets as we don't get exclusive news upfront. Infact, we used to get trapped because of news so, likely I cannot comment anything on fundamentals.
Prince_Kanodia AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, I agree with you.
PAV71 Prince_Kanodia
@Prince_Kanodia, Every sectors have their headwinds and tailwinds.Going forward govt has its own plans for aviation and the tourism sector as a whole.ATF prices,I agree,but that can be hedged with other variables like fuel efficient planes and cut in the govt fuel surcharges.With UDAN being given priority and pet project of PM,i think the govt will go all out to make aviation a success story.Another way of hedging is improving the ancillary verticals like cargo business and spice vacation.Spicejet I think has a long way to go.Although a fan of technicals,but more convinced if technicals combined with fundamentals(masterBlaster).My take is Spice will hit 75-80 very soon.
@PAV71, Bang on.As mentioned 2 months ago,price moving along expected lines.Technical works perfect when the fundamentals are in favour.The fundamentals play an impt role in the technical studies ,As far as spicejet is concerned,the longterm trend is bullish.The next level of resistence is 90.Once crossed we can easily see 120++ in the coming 3 months.we see spice crossing 90 in the next 6 trading session.
@PAV71, A 12 month rectangular BO(horizontal BO is more effective) possible taking the stock to next orbit of 90s in the next 6 sessions.Fundamental news in the pipeline.UDAN,DGCA data,Results,ATF cut and NSE listing.120 is easily achieved in the next 3 months.
@PAV71, target of 120 achieved in may 2017 itself.now looking for 180-200 in the coming 3-4 months