If Greece defaults in the Summer of 2015 and China crashes then I expect the following scenario to play out. A deep retracement down to the 1820 area until early 2016.
In order to confirm my bearish idea the price has to fall and stay below 2095, especially below 1958. If Greece does not default then I expect another long rally until the year 2017, because in that case the current bearish RSI divergence will have acted as a sideways consolidation.
"This Sunday the Greek government is in talks with the troika, the Eurogroup, the ECB and the IMF , over the necessary bailout deal Greece needs if it is to avoid default. The word coming out of those talks over here in Europe is that no deal is in the offing. Given that the next major cash crunch for the country is on Friday, when a repayment to the IMF becomes due, no one’s really quite sure whether there will be a deal or not."
I'm not in the "crash" camp, but the kind of correction you have depicted here is something I think is very reasonable over the next year or so.
ChartArt
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The "crash camp" of the market decided it was time already.
FractalTrader
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true, those 3 days were pretty tough, but they took the market to a level necessary to digest a very prolonged uptrend.
ChartArt
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Does this mean you are already bullish for the next weeks?
FractalTrader
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Wouldn't say I'm bullish, but I'm not looking for Armageddon yet either. This is a sell in may type year. We've had several months of sideways and a bearish climax. Historically speaking, sept is a bearish month, particularly after a bearish aug. That's as far ahead as I care to look for now. As Oct approaches, I'll be looking closely at resistance levels to see if the market gets a bid.
chartmojo
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Add ROC and lets whats up
chartmojo
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RETYPE....I'de add ROC and see what's up...maybe even MACD if you are looking for a confluence of divergence
ChartArt
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I have added a lot of indicators in my overall analysis, one of them was a custom MACD cycle and yes I also looked at ROC with a fast custom indicator. There simply is a bearish potential already.