Real simple idea. All the Happy enthusiastic FOMO and BTFD tech stonks still trading at 700x PE. All Happy BS.
You BTFD here you gonna get a nasty surprise, surprise, surprise. This monthly view shows where RSI goes in a real Bear.
NB: U R HERE... U R NEXT! This won't happen overnight, it will be a painfull grind with some terrific knifedowns.
Real Bears last for >500 days. Y2K Dot-Com was >900 days. Great Finance Crisis was 17 months, >500 days. Now at day 400.
BIggest Bear in history to follow longest Bull run ever. Stonks went up for 12 years with a few correections. Big reset is overdue, 2/3 of the reset comes in last 1/3 of the Bear. Final move coming soon if so.
Get ready to get skeered. Worst still yet to come imo. We neeed VIX >40 and capitulation, panic selling to call bottom.
Long TL points at 3200. We will see. Next 90 days gonna be an amazing ride if this idea is on target. GLTA
Trade active
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Green > Red. Get ready. Dumpfest coming
Comment
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So many bulls out there calling for run to the ATH. Hmmm... let's see: Needed poots on Weds Needed poots on Thurs Probly need moar poots Fri
Don't we usually need calls in a bull market?! Seems like we goin the other way folks. Put/Call ratio flipped from 1.2 > 0.8 on Tuesday, everyone dumped poots for cawls, a sure sign of a top.
On a monthly chart, real recession bottoms for stocks have always been where both rsi and macd are oversold which we haven’t reached. The 10 year minus 3 month yield is more inverted than any recession in history. According to previous recessions and depressions from this yield inversion, we should be getting the major capitulation during the second half of 2023.
What’s throwing me off is the fact that we have broke above the 200ma and used it as support on the monthly candles. There hasn’t been an instance where we broke above the 200ma and broke back below shortly after.
This one will be hard to call, I see mixed signals at the moment. Looks like there is still plenty of pain left in this market for both sides. This market has the potential to crush the bears right before rolling over to do the same to the bulls. Plenty of pain to go around for everyone :)
we are in wave 4, after this correction, wave 5 north people before things can really collapse so keep investing & learn to be patient
CryptoDap
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Much lower then that buddy, but good view
bluespark96
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While you may be right...This assumes we are in a "real" bear. Who decides this? Check this out...rarely fails. BAM! walterdeemer.com/bam.htm
DaddySawbucks
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@bluespark96, Fascinating, tyvm for sharing this post!
dRends35
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Could be but check the RUT looking boolish
DaddySawbucks
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@dRends35, at 1980 is exactly at the 0.50 fibo retracement based on closing prices from 2300 > 1670. ofc can squeak higher. prefer closing prices for the fibos eliminates statistical outliers.
What’s throwing me off is the fact that we have broke above the 200ma and used it as support on the monthly candles. There hasn’t been an instance where we broke above the 200ma and broke back below shortly after.