We can only look at past history here... The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is likely to produce more down/drop/red, all the signals and indicators are FULL BEARISH.
I've marked all the levels on the chart.
The blue dashed line is the "first target", the bold dashed line lower is for the "worst-case scenario" only... It looks like this is where the index is heading.
We see a recovery long-term.
Previous trade ideas:
Jan 5, 2020 | S&P 500 Index Hits New All-Time High, Ready To Drop?
Aug 23, 2019 | Dow Jones Industrial Average Risks Strong Drop!
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Feel free to leave us comments and likes.
Namaste.
Comment
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Agree with your analysis however this will be far from a V-shaped recovery.
This will be years of malaise before any sort of sustainable bottom in the equity market, especially for Canada, USA and Europe. Other markets like India, China and Korea will likely have some better fate, although still poor.
There will likely be at-least 1 additional recession after the one we are about to enter (which will be more in-line with a depression) before we have any chance of new ATHs. I don't believe the US will have new ATHs until past 2025. Once equities find some sustainable bottom, Gold and Silver will then have at-least a 3 year parabolic bull run to account for the massive inflation that will happen from world banks money-printing and stimulus to "combat the virus".
- zSplit
nourin890
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good job
Confucius-The-Great
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Worst case scenario is closer to 0 than 1200.
This may become the biggest crash since 1921.
The damage from 6 months of corona may be too much.
But I hope not.
Remember, when logistics of food and goods is limited - people panic - and no price is holy any more. Everybody think about survival. Even the whales think about cashing out to they can buy the bottom - and that way you get the crash of all crashes. With no bottom price limit you can read on a chart. The bottom in such a scenario is depended on when the virus would be over. And add then mental recovery time ( faith in markets and the future ) + 1,2,3,4,5 years. And then you get the bottom price.
TA is useless for finding the bottom when the world face World War/Or likewise catastrophes that make everybody go into survival mode.
And if fiat crash or not I think many alt coins will die this bear market. They will not have a good price to sell their coins 2020 at to pay their bills like in 2017 and 2019.
Thanks for sharing.
bruno10000
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@Confucius-The-Great, if your scenario occurs central banks will ban or will seize bitcoins & all crypto currencies.
Keep in mind that in 1932 Roosevelt seized all the gold of the americans.
vikinsa
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I think we have a predictable pattern on SnP 500 and that gives us good opportunities. Here is my full analysis:
bitstomoon
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This reversal in feb 2009 was becaue of the obama stimulus of 850 B. do you think the upcoming stimulus of 1 T could be the same reversal?
AlanSantana
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@bakkah, The index will run its cycle for sure.
Yes, the stimulus will help but I believe the index will recover regardless long-term based on TA.
AlanSantana
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@bakkah, It will take time for the stimulus to be rolled out... The market will continue correcting, only after the bottom is in it will start to reverse.
I don't think the bottom is in yet.
ich1baN
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@bakkah, TARP was actually George Bush. It was initiated in Oct 2008. Market continued to fall and ultimately bottom in 2009 after TARP was announced and initiated.
This will be years of malaise before any sort of sustainable bottom in the equity market, especially for Canada, USA and Europe. Other markets like India, China and Korea will likely have some better fate, although still poor.
There will likely be at-least 1 additional recession after the one we are about to enter (which will be more in-line with a depression) before we have any chance of new ATHs. I don't believe the US will have new ATHs until past 2025. Once equities find some sustainable bottom, Gold and Silver will then have at-least a 3 year parabolic bull run to account for the massive inflation that will happen from world banks money-printing and stimulus to "combat the virus".
- zSplit