SkylinePro

USA - Bearish Outlook - Part 1

Short
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
This is the first post of 3 on the analysis of US economy and stock market. The left graph shows the SP500 and its respective long-term perspective and current outlook for the net positions of traders in future markets. The current high net positive position of Non-Commercial investors indicate a continuing downtrend ahead. Non-commercials are trend followers and are usually caught when the market trend reverses. This occurs when their futures positions are in peak levels, as shown in the current scenario. This same outlook is shown by the high relative spread between commercials and non-commercials net positions of the index, another indicative of the bearish outlook. On the right graph we can see some divergences between SP500 and the price of cooper (industry production proxy indicator). The other graph shows an interesting mood proxy indicator and its divergence with SP500. This indicator is the WWE stock, a professional wrestling entertainment company. When the society mood is positive, interest in wrestling increases and peaks in this kind of entertainment matches with peaks in the stock market. However, since April 2019 a big divergence is shown between WWE and SP500. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.

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