I won’t start this analysis with a “I told you so”, because this would be too cliché. In my last SPX analysis, I warned you about how bearish patterns in the daily chart often are just a correction or pullback in smaller timeframes. And that’s exactly what happened today. If you missed my last analysis, the link to it is below as always.
The possibility of a shooting star was real, yes, but that’s the fourth bear trap we avoid by using this simple strategy. That’s how a multi timeframe analysis works, and that’s why I always like to keep things simple. The price hit its supports at the pink line (previous top) and the 21 ema and the trend resumed, as usual.
There are no surprises for us here, and I’ll quote what the technical analysis’s father said about a century ago: “Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs”. That’s why I’m a bull for more than a month now, and I’ll keep bullish until the bears appear. Simple. Check the links below to check my analyses about some stocks I own, and check my social media too, since I can’t post everything here!
Until then, there’s nothing here that convinces me that a bear trend will begin. Let’s take a look at the daily chart:
The trend is still clearly bullish.It's been years ago since I stopped trying to “predict” the next top - now I just follow the trend. I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with my analyses and if you want to understand better my trading methodology. You guys know that I won’t short SPX, because I’m inclined to buy VIX instead, and maybe we will see something new tomorrow – or maybe not. We don’t know, and we don’t need to know to trade successfully. Some people call me naive, having no idea of how serious I'm at my work.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
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* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
Wish I started following you prior to inputting my short positions... Lots of lessons learned over the past month.
Nathan_Black
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@wju0328, Hey wju, don't feel bad, man. We all commit some mistakes here, the important is to learn from them, and keep working hard! I'm always learning with you guys, and I'm glad I can teach some stuff in return.
Stick around, here you'll be treated with respect, regardless if you are a bull or bear. The important is that we are traders, and we are in this together.
I wish you well.
wju0328
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@Nathan_Black, Luckily my hedges the other direction have played out nicely and will provide great liquidity when things do correct. But as a newb to technical trading your insight has been invaluable. Keep up the great work. I greatly enjoy the analysis.
Nathan_Black
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@wju0328, Thank you, I really appreciate the support!
Me_in_hurry
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Thanks honey, now it is more clear.
Will see
BuckiTrader
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By September, the GDP estimate increase and the unemployment rate drop will be the largest in our history. Couple that with lower company earnings estimates and you have an all time new high cocktail. The bear thesis is tenuous at best now. Sorry shorts, it's over...
Nathan_Black
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@BuckiTrader, This is an interesting way to view the situation. Although I'm a bull here, I'm very skeptical about this bull trend, but as I said here in the comments, I try my best to avoid any interference from my personal opinions in my decision-making process to trade.
But I like you view. Stick around Bucki, let's see where the market is going to take us.
Good trades.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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agree that we are in the middle of Wave 5 and that it's more likely that we extend to 3135 at this point. From there, it's going to be straight down back to the latest gap you pointed out above for start of the corrective set.
The real question is do we test 2640 or 2750 again before the real bull action begins. I think the corrective low is somewhere between those two points, and then it's off to 3750.
We have same basic idea, just never thought about it in terms of gaps. Interesting stuff.
Nathan_Black
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@Perma_Pig, Hi Perma! That's a very reasonable view about the market - technical, no biases or opinion. Like you, I try my best to not let my personal opinions interfere with my technique. We, traders, should have our convictions, yes, but based on technical analysis (or any other technique you want).
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! My best regards to you.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@Nathan_Black, Indeed, glad to see an online community of real traders. Thought Stocktwits was the extent of sharing intellectual trading ideas (was disappointed, obviously) so am relieved to have found this site last week.