1. Correlation/ Technical analysis - SPX has set up the most predictable price action I have ever seen - confirmed by two EXACT 0.55% moves higher and the last 4 moves have been almost exactly 2weeks.
2. Price action currently shows exhastion has set in and there will either be 1) another bull exhastion leg 3 (+0.55%) to 2206 OR 2) A sell-off will begin from here to 2147 - the market will test risk sentiment - if bulls win we will then move higher past 2194 previous highs, and the bull trend continues, but imo 80% most likely bears will win and we will break through 2147 and move to AT LEAST 1990.
3. IMO a daily and weekly close BELOW 2140 means selling is RISK-LESS as given this set up there will be no more bids until we hit 1990 (as shown by the price action and empty/bidless space).
- More aggressive sellers will sell here at 2182, risk-free sellers will wait to sell on the weekly close below 2140.
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UPDATE:
1. Pretty obvious but just wanted to say the market is moving in 2wk levels, so IF the SPX doesnt reach the 2206 or 0.55% increase from 2194 previous highs by the end of august then the bear leg is confirmed and we will move lower from there - shorts until then still have risk capped at 2206 imo, so still safe with small positions.. id say 25% short here, then 50% short at Aug end confirmation and 25% short at 2140 weekly close below,
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Update:
1. Post hawkiish fed - if you didnt get short on the fake bull move higher to 2190 post-yellen, i suggest waiting to see if we can squeeze there again next week (the last week of the bull imo)
2. Alternatively if you dont want to miss the break lower, here is still 1% above previous ATH so still good to short.
3. I will add shorts on a daily close below 2140 as the bear is confirmed.
Looks like a nice run up to the 2145 level again, SPX can't hold the level in AH trading, smart money selling SPX overnight. Oil develops more negative momentum, AAPL euphoria will fade away (IP7 is pretty much a polished up IP6), markets expects no FED hike.. nice level to go short again :)
ahmetnmsl
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Any update if it closes below 2145 ? Thanks.
QuantumLogicTrading
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happy to sell from here.. as mentioned above, US below 18200 also.. Structural shorts should have been taken from 2180 though, the short from 2140 play is a 25% positioning (if that).
ahmetnmsl
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I had a short from 18520 but a bit late to add from 18200..it fell so quickly, couldnt catch it :)
ahmetnmsl
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2140 would correspond to what price for US30 indice ? Thanks..
QuantumLogicTrading
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18200 close-open below on the daily..
binnenfuchs
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very nice.. so far it works out great!
QuantumLogicTrading
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Thanks, dont forget to follow for more updates! the risk:reward for this trade is the best it will ever get - literally 1:8 at least short at 2180 doesnt have more than 26pts of risk, yet we will go to a minimum of 1990 imo on election and fed risk its almost like a free giveaway - then you can buy the dip $$$