Context & Navigating markets during COVID-19 Due to COVID-19 outbreak happening on top of an uptight bond market and weak economic fundamentals, the OANDA:SPX500USD — along with other major indexes — has tanked from its 3396 historical high in a straight line untill it found a yet to confirm or break H1 support on the 2855 area which happens to be the 50% fibonacci retracement of the December 24th 2018 to Febuary 20th 2020 rise fueled by the series of Federal Reserve's interest's rate cuts.
Since then the market has demonstrated extreme volatility on lower timeframes, thus highlighting profilic opportunities for speculators. After confused reaction to the FED's emergency 50 basic points rate cut on Tuesday, the market ended up rejecting twice the 50% retracement at 3130$, a fib level that usually isn't supposed to show much reaction, displaying how weak the buyers were by not being able to push throught 61.8% (much more attractive for short sellers risk management). The market was then vowed to retest, if not break its support. The bulls showed very low interest on the range support area of 2960 - 2920 (highlighted by fib retracement and fib extension) only a few hours before the weekly close, which led me to believe that we were going to break the support either before closure or at the next opening. MACD and RSI were not showing any kind of bullish signals anyway therefore i decided not to buy the support as i previously planed to. However volumes sudently rised up and printed a 3 min range which broke to the upside the 3min bearish trendline and closed the week with a 1 hour green engulfing candle, thus quickly sending a whole bunch of bullish signals :
Trade As a result, i intend to buy any retracement of the aforementioned engulfing candle with an invalidation level under the 2830 level. Regarding the objectives of that trade, i wouldn't target anything higher than 3191 - 3270$ which are respectively the 61.8 & 76.4 retracement of the "corona" bearish wave; i'll even go so far as look to reinforce my daily shorts on that very atractive area. Average risk ratio of the trade is 1/4 (2.5 stop for 10% gains) but that might change slightly given the price you enter at. Targeting new historical highs from there seem completly unrealistic and that is especially considering the underlying context and daily technical structure which seems to be a bearish trend that may drag us to as low as 2700$ if not way lower (see my future long term analysis on the stock market).
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Go easy on leverage and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
Kindly, J.M.K
Order cancelled
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SPX500 nosedived straight up to 2820 right at the opening, all signals mentionned previously are invalidated, therefore the trade is canceled. Next area to look out for would be 2727 (127.8 fib retracement of our recent hourly consolidation movement) to 2727$ (61.8% retracement of the whole 2019 bullish trend to our recent market top) . I'll publish a new trading plan once we get there.
There's a massive gap that needs to fill at 3328-3260, what are your thoughts on that, you don't think B wave will get up that high?
John_Maynard_Keynes
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@cyberluck, If we are indeed in a bearish trend (which is the bias i'm currently siding on personnally), that gap you're mentioning would be what's called a "breakout" gap, characterized by the breakout of a congestion area and the begining of a new trend. While most common regular gaps will be filled, breakout gaps are unlikely to be so anytime soon, at least not untill the new trend it is setting up comes to maturation and gets completly retraced by some upper trend that would go to the opposite side of our lower timeframe mature trend. Also keep in mind that B wave i drew on my daily chart might also have turned out to be a triangle and thus, never have reached the 61.8 fibo i was talking about.
@John_Maynard_Keynes, thanks for the link, I do have all the gaps down, the timing of fills is what I always wonder about because if we don't get up there on the larger degree wave then perhaps we are heading down to flush the entire wave not sure correct on wave 4. I'm trying to determine if the 5th wave we just dropped from was short / failed and we have started wave 4 of a higher degree so that ABC would be much deeper and focus on 200 level which takes out the entire year. I hope we haven't started the massive crash that will correct all the way to 2009 area :(...hard to tell with that freefall. I know Iran meets with Russia again end of the month about oil, corona will be over by may just like SARS was and if you compare 2000-2003...sars happened in nov 2002, was over may 2003....but 2000-2003 we pretty much flushed the entire 1-5wave. I've been looking at ton of bear/bull assessments and wonder who has actually counted the waves to figure out if we are in wave 4 or ABC....we def. did a short wave 5 of a lesser degree just by the looks of it.