OANDA:SPX500USD   S&P 500 Index
My analysis today deals with how the further course of our most popular stock index "S&P500" could look like.

The DXY / USD has a non-negligible impact on the S&P500 , as the whole economy depends on its behavior.

> Meanwhile, this seems to take run-up, for a final upswing, which could bring the S&P500 under massive selling pressure.

> Regardless of this selling pressure coming from the USD, a divergence has formed on the MACD + RSI indicators in the S&P500 weekly chart, forecasting a rising S&P500 / falling USD.

Below, the analysis goes into detail so that you are aware of the significant levels and areas.

For this I have carried out a "MULTI-TIME-FRAME" analysis, which refers to the higher time units (month & week) and thus makes the big picture visible.

Normally, all time units below "1h" are called noise, but even a - 1h-4h - analysis is of no use to you, if the knowledge about the big and whole is missing.

> We traders know that nobody can predict the future, and that's exactly why you have to be prepared for all initial situations.

> If the DXY should rise again, it means "BLOOD" for the traditional and crypto markets.

> This creates dangers, but also opportunities - it is important to look at the big picture.

> I have explained in detail which levels are RELEVANT in the following pages.

Table of contents



= Monthly - Time frame
= Weekly - Time frame

3rd part = CONCLUSION


After the "S&P500/USD" formed a top at last year's turn of the year, a strong sell-off is subsequently unleashed.

> This sell-off paused in October|2022 to test the strength of it.

> The two following bullish monthly candles, were interrupted with a "bearish engulfing", - this adds further selling pressure to the index.

> That we can expect a price explosion, thus moves further into the distance - however, this is not excluded, for the following reason:

= The weeks MACD + RSI , show since October last year, a bullish divergence .

> Once you look at the DXY (USD index) on the higher time levels, the further sell-off in the traditional markets, however, becomes more likely.

(My DXY analysis is linked below this post, for confirmation purposes.)


For the analysis of the higher time levels I proceed according to the onion-skin principle.

> MONTHLY - Level > WEEKLY - Level > DAILY - Level

These are divided into


The charts and fibs are presented in logarithmic scaling, as the given information can be visually presented in a more harmonious way.



The trend channel shown in the chart formed in March|2009 and has since been able to take a stand as a legitimate trend channel. Its mid-trend line showed reactions when confronted and was respected by the market.

> The price is in the area below the middle line and had recently touched it.

> In the last 3 months, the price ran up to the middle line, but was not strong enough.

> The trend arc is another support, which should be considered for a future sell-off.

> The downtrend line, was respected and needs to be broken + tested before a "rally".

If we go into more detail about the "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones, you can look at two "DEMAND" zones on the chart.

> The "DEMAND" zone 1, is WEAK, because it is a RBR (Rally-Base-Rally) and was already tested by the course in October.

> The "DEMAND" zone 2, is VERY STRONG, because it is a DBR (Drop-Base-Rally) and has not been tested by the price yet.

The Fibonacci retracements should serve us as additional confirmation and were taken into account in past movements (last decades).

> Should the price fall further, FIB 1 (0.88 FIB) will serve as resistance. Although due to the previous testing of the 0.786 FIB, the resistance will be crumbling.

> If the sell-off continues, FIB 2 (1.618s FIB) will be the first point of contact for the price and in combination with the arc, can trigger a reaction on the "smaller" time levels.

> The FIB 3 = 0.618 - 0.88 FIB level, in combination with the FIB 4, will trigger the biggest resistance reaction in the market, should such a strong sell-off occur.

The past highs and lows usually serve as resistance / support, one of which we have.

> HIGH | 02/20 - Already showed reactions = Future support

A level of interest is before us, which since 2018, plays a strong role for the market.

> This support, represents the drawn - POI (2,950 USD), which at the time of this analysis, is still far from the price.


S&P500 – Overall picture

S&P500 – Overall picture without trendlines


In the following time levels, I will only deal with the NEW, added elements.



Besides the already mentioned trend channel, further trend lines become visible in this one.

- These have caused reactions in the channel in the past and should therefore be kept in mind. (gray)

The monthly "SUPPLY & DEMAND" zones are joined by others from the weekly view that coincide with other resistance / support elements.

- The near "DEMAND" zone has low significance as it has already been tested once by the price.

As other Fibonacci additions, we have two more elements:

> Both newly drawn elements refer to a possible upward movement.

> If there is an upward movement of fundamental magnitude, these levels will be updated again.


S&P500 – Overall picture

S&P500 – Overall picture without trendlines


"The calm before the storm "

Before a thunderstorm breaks out, it suddenly becomes very quiet - currently it is unusually STILL | seen from a macro- and microeconomic perspective.

> Will the calm be broken by a sharp sell-off, or by a price explosion?

In summary, based on technical analysis , there are strong reasons for a falling S&P500 price.

> Since the price top in Jan|2022 - every monthly - Bullish candle, was completely Bearish engulfed.
= Which leads us to conclude a very strong sell-off.

> The divergence on the weekly level, which indicates a price upswing, should be kept in mind - but this is not a reliable indication.

For this reason, I am assuming a weak S&P500 and an accompanying bloodbath in the traditional and crypto markets.

> Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT

If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of the idea.

Thank you and happy trading!


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