Technicals:
We are in sideways trading still, we successfully made a lower high and lower low (daily downtrend) now we are going back up to make another lower high. You can see it perfectly on the hourly charts the mini bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that is playing out. My last update the bulls were taking another shot at the neckline (of the much bigger bearish head and shoulders) and the bulls broke back above the neckline which is bullish. Part of the problem for the bulls is that by the time we get to downtrend line of the lower highs the market will be overbought (low probability of a breakout) and the bears won't have very far to go to break below the neckline again which should lead a lower low. In order to get bullish: I need to see a break above the previous lower high and since were still in strong resistance a break above 3026 and I would look to go long. In order to stay bearish: we need a lower high below 2952 followed by a lower low below 2768 and I would to see a big drop soon; otherwise, this could just be a weekly bull flag. To simplify, we are still mostly going sideways we need to see more waterfall selling to confirm this next drop, levels to watch are 3026 I'm long, 2768 more confirmation of downtrend. Tech stock are key going to do analysis of them.
News to watch:
This market is gonna need negative rates here or its gonna have a hard time going up here. Powell will cave and we will get negative rates, I don't know when it will happen maybe a month from now or next fed meeting we probably need to see stocks drop first. The fed will also have to start buying stocks, they already are buying etfs thru the banks but I expect more buying once this market really tanks. Oil had a good week last week with the economy opening it takes pressure off the oversupply I don't expect it to go negative because the economy is reopening but with that being oil up is stock market positive. Watch 10 year yield we had a pretty big move down last week and now we're moving back up but if it continues to drop expect stocks to follow. We have more stimulus just like I said we would this is stock market positive. Last week the china trade talks were getting a little bumpy, I would not be surprised if they push the trade talks going great narrative again. To summarize I think market here is gonna need negative rates the market will need infinitely more heroin to stay up. So we're probably gonna move down again and then the fed will probably take rates negative and then we'll have another at least bear market rally.
We are in sideways trading still, we successfully made a lower high and lower low (daily downtrend) now we are going back up to make another lower high. You can see it perfectly on the hourly charts the mini bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern that is playing out. My last update the bulls were taking another shot at the neckline (of the much bigger bearish head and shoulders) and the bulls broke back above the neckline which is bullish. Part of the problem for the bulls is that by the time we get to downtrend line of the lower highs the market will be overbought (low probability of a breakout) and the bears won't have very far to go to break below the neckline again which should lead a lower low. In order to get bullish: I need to see a break above the previous lower high and since were still in strong resistance a break above 3026 and I would look to go long. In order to stay bearish: we need a lower high below 2952 followed by a lower low below 2768 and I would to see a big drop soon; otherwise, this could just be a weekly bull flag. To simplify, we are still mostly going sideways we need to see more waterfall selling to confirm this next drop, levels to watch are 3026 I'm long, 2768 more confirmation of downtrend. Tech stock are key going to do analysis of them.
News to watch:
This market is gonna need negative rates here or its gonna have a hard time going up here. Powell will cave and we will get negative rates, I don't know when it will happen maybe a month from now or next fed meeting we probably need to see stocks drop first. The fed will also have to start buying stocks, they already are buying etfs thru the banks but I expect more buying once this market really tanks. Oil had a good week last week with the economy opening it takes pressure off the oversupply I don't expect it to go negative because the economy is reopening but with that being oil up is stock market positive. Watch 10 year yield we had a pretty big move down last week and now we're moving back up but if it continues to drop expect stocks to follow. We have more stimulus just like I said we would this is stock market positive. Last week the china trade talks were getting a little bumpy, I would not be surprised if they push the trade talks going great narrative again. To summarize I think market here is gonna need negative rates the market will need infinitely more heroin to stay up. So we're probably gonna move down again and then the fed will probably take rates negative and then we'll have another at least bear market rally.
