I have been following SPX since the crash and counting the waves per the Elliott Wave Principal. As it unfolded, the top of wave iii looked like a convincing v, but the way that wave iv unfolded invalidated that. Wave v will end close below the .786 fib, which is pretty surprising considering the circumstances of the economic situation (JPOW go BRRR).
Wave iv last been particularly nasty since it has been hard to pin point the top of wave iii and its been a complex correction, even at higher time intervals.
I am looking for a push up to 3060 to 3080, which is a pretty painful spot for shorts, as well as a horrendous trap for the bulls. I think the top of v will be short lived and will mark the end of an extremely powerful B wave. This will be followed with an equally powerful C wave back down to re-test the lows. Technically, we should see 1700 on spx, but thats super bearish and it may end with a flat, so look for at least 2200 as the target on the way down.
At the end of the day, I think reality will start to set in with upcoming economic reports and Q2 earnings and this irrational market will come back down to earth. Go luck and stay safe out there!
Where can I get the script for the wave indicator?
Phils_Ocean
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How can Wave B have 5 subwaves? isn't it a 3-wave corrective pattern? Looks like a leading diagonal as a Wave 1
Phillis
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@FinancialFreedomTrading thanks for the feedback! Yes, you are correct as I can’t find an example where the B wave consists of 5 sub waves. This is interesting as it could point to my B wave becoming wave 1 with a correction to 2, or it means that the A wave is 1 and the top of my B wave is 2, which would be super bearish (almost unbelievably bearish). Either way, this impulse is coming to an end and it will be interesting to see where we go.
Phils_Ocean
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@Phillis, yes thats what i also thought. In my count your wave A could be the complete correction and the recent upward movement would then represent Wave 1 of a new uptrend. Would then should follow is a deep correction for wave 2. Target for said correction would be around the 50-61% or even 78% Fibonacci level of wave 1.
Petrichor_
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I really hope so. As a bear, I've grown extremely weary of technical analysis, waves, charts, trendlines, shapes. Your analysis seems correct ... and many things are coinciding for a drop in a week or two. Fed money matures, U.S. China tension escalation, cases rising, rejection off 200 m.a. (hopefully), solvency issues bubbling up, end of credit contraction cycle. We shall see I suppose. Thanks for posting.
Phillis
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@Money2020_ET it is hard to ignore the fundamentals and we had a similar impulse wave in 2008 and the market had a streak where it ignored a lot of fundamentally bearish news. I am leaning bearish myself but we shall see.
Ringding58
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think without major news we wont see anything like this.