Hello everyone,
as predicted in my last analysis (long term), the S&P 500 has moved up – so far so good. But now, we want to know, how to trade the next movements (shorter term). Some of you might read my dow-analysis. Often both indices are moving similar, but in detail there are important differences!
There are three scenarios in the chart – same procedure as every time.
Scenario 1 – green line, chance 50%
I think the first stronger move down (wave a, purple in square brackets) is already completed at 2.599. So now I am expecting a shorter wave down (wave b, blue in brackets) and then a move up completing wave b of higher wave degree (purple in square brackets). If so, we then will have a good chance to ride the final wave c of 4 down to the region around 2.100 points, as you can see in the chart of my last analysis (please check link below).
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 40%
Similar to the most expected movement of the dow (please check), the SPX may also haven’t already completed the first significant corrective wave down (wave a, purple in square brackets). If so, we will see a sell-off down to around 2.500/2.400 before moving up to complete wave b.
Scenario 3 – red lines, chance 10%
The correction might be completed already, so the SPX will go up. This is possible, but I do not think so.
I am expecting scenario 1 or 2 and I am waiting for the end of wave b (purple in square brackets) to trade wave c of 4 short.
Take care,
tgo
as predicted in my last analysis (long term), the S&P 500 has moved up – so far so good. But now, we want to know, how to trade the next movements (shorter term). Some of you might read my dow-analysis. Often both indices are moving similar, but in detail there are important differences!
There are three scenarios in the chart – same procedure as every time.
Scenario 1 – green line, chance 50%
I think the first stronger move down (wave a, purple in square brackets) is already completed at 2.599. So now I am expecting a shorter wave down (wave b, blue in brackets) and then a move up completing wave b of higher wave degree (purple in square brackets). If so, we then will have a good chance to ride the final wave c of 4 down to the region around 2.100 points, as you can see in the chart of my last analysis (please check link below).
Scenario 2 – blue line, chance 40%
Similar to the most expected movement of the dow (please check), the SPX may also haven’t already completed the first significant corrective wave down (wave a, purple in square brackets). If so, we will see a sell-off down to around 2.500/2.400 before moving up to complete wave b.
Scenario 3 – red lines, chance 10%
The correction might be completed already, so the SPX will go up. This is possible, but I do not think so.
I am expecting scenario 1 or 2 and I am waiting for the end of wave b (purple in square brackets) to trade wave c of 4 short.
Take care,
tgo
HK-Capital-Management
