Good idea: Learning how the market works. Bad idea: Learning how in the middle of a market crash. Or maybe it's a good idea? Let me know what you think!
For now, this is a place for me to keep track of my thoughts and ideas. Feedback is most welcome. I am here to learn, and I would graciously accept any knowledge you have to share.
Analysis: We broke and traded above the 200 day MA (navy line) for much of the day, but on low volume and with significant help from the after-hours/futures crew through Memorial Day. Not shown on the chart, but note the pre-market (9am) pump and subsequent cash market open dump (930am) and the dump at close (3:30-4pm) on the 30 min timeframe. The fact that we were unable to book a close above the 200 day MA and that the daily candle is more or less a shooting star seems a relatively bearish signal, to me. Currently, 200 day MA is holding on futures, but barely. Also, we never backtested the iH&S neckline from May 15 (see 4H timeframe for a better view). On the other hand, we *did* break above the 200 day MA for most of RTH, set a new high, and people are hopeful about easing restrictions and potential vaccines/treatments. And TV sentiment seems to be bullish this week as well. There are gaps to be filled both above and below - no real help there either. MFI & RSI do not indicate we're overbought on the daily.
Conclusion: I am tired of this seemingly relentless chop. SPX500USD needs to grow a pair.
Overall mood: bearish
Short-term (1-2 weeks): neutral
Longer-term (4+ months): bearish
For now, this is a place for me to keep track of my thoughts and ideas. Feedback is most welcome. I am here to learn, and I would graciously accept any knowledge you have to share.
Analysis: We broke and traded above the 200 day MA (navy line) for much of the day, but on low volume and with significant help from the after-hours/futures crew through Memorial Day. Not shown on the chart, but note the pre-market (9am) pump and subsequent cash market open dump (930am) and the dump at close (3:30-4pm) on the 30 min timeframe. The fact that we were unable to book a close above the 200 day MA and that the daily candle is more or less a shooting star seems a relatively bearish signal, to me. Currently, 200 day MA is holding on futures, but barely. Also, we never backtested the iH&S neckline from May 15 (see 4H timeframe for a better view). On the other hand, we *did* break above the 200 day MA for most of RTH, set a new high, and people are hopeful about easing restrictions and potential vaccines/treatments. And TV sentiment seems to be bullish this week as well. There are gaps to be filled both above and below - no real help there either. MFI & RSI do not indicate we're overbought on the daily.
Conclusion: I am tired of this seemingly relentless chop. SPX500USD needs to grow a pair.
Overall mood: bearish
Short-term (1-2 weeks): neutral
Longer-term (4+ months): bearish