Here is a simplified analysis of the rally from the October low. I break the chart down very simply, but I think very usefully to show that the market has two "time clocks". One clock counts the time at the last most-frequent consolidation and the other counts time from the low to the end of the last consolidation. You can see that we run out of "time" on the faster method and it has failed to reach it's projected price at 146. This is a very simple analysis, but it is the basis for how to analyze trends, trend-time and trend-strength. I hope if there are any questions that I can address them in a timely basis. Cheers. Technical Tim, Tuesday, March 20, 2012 3:58PM EST
Comments
timwest
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I updated this chart by publishing it up to July 18th at 3pm
charttrader
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Algokid
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Hi Tim, this is very interesting. Could you explain how you got the projection price of 146 ? and since it failed to reach that projected price, does that mean the trend is almost over or getting weaker ? thanks @LGO.
timwest
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The green line is the measurement, the red line is the projection. The concept is that the accumulation should create a rally (distribution) in equal size.
timwest
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I'm wondering how this will play out - the low level of VIX - the market is always a wonderland. I just noticed that small-speculators are now long 50,000 contracts in the E-Mini S&P500. nowandfutures.com/images/cot/ES.png This is the first long position since 7 weeks ago.
Algokid
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I also wonder how this will play out. We are approaching the end of Q1, and based on your chart ,the SPY is up 28.9% , and the VIX is at levels that recommend a market corrections . Will traders finally take some profits ?? Is Europe still a major factor for North Americans markets ??
timwest
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It's interesting to read our comments here - the market failed to rally, VIX was low, and small specs were very "long" the market, the end of the quarter and nervous traders ready to take profits... it led to a very nice 10% correction following this set-up. Nice team work.