How is this gonna happen when 90% of people on UE are making double? Well, it probably won't. But if you were wrong, what is most likely the reason why? So, some people are making more, but no significant number of them are making double. Even so, it isn't going to last. All the UI recipients know that. UI is limited by time. The administration is not famous for forward-looking solutions, so people are using that money very sparingly. Everyone knows their UI might run out before the crisis ends and it's not like there's a plan for what happens if it does for millions of people at virtually the same time.
If you look at the gains of the market they've happened on diminishing volume. This is never a sign of a reliable gain. It's easily explainable in terms of the FED's recent bailout. That's what I think we're seeing in the market's recent upward price action, not increased investor confidence.
So, while your reasoning is actually pretty strong on some things, the question as to what else might be happening besides that might lead us to a reasonable doubt in the longevity potential of this rally. So about the Fed- what's going on there?
The Fed has bought a bunch of bonds with the expectation that everything will start poppin and chooglin again, that the debts will be paid back, and that we'll all be good to go once we open up and money flows. The problem is this: that was their last bullet. If that doesn't work, if we get a second hit of this virus (most are saying there's a strong possibility) then those debts aren't going to be repaid and we're going to see hyper-inflation. The purchasing power of the dollar as they crank out all that money will crash if that debt stagnates.
You might not agree with that scenario, but it's just an example of a different reasonable way of seeing how this might all play out that is smart to bear in mind. There are many bearish scenarios that can happen from here. Right now I'm seeing many indications that that's possible between the following factors: volume being low, insane amounts of dollars being printed, unemployment going into the stratosphere, supply chains beginning to fail, entire inventories being stopped from weighing anchor at ports, oil demand being low, copper being in the drink as well, gold climbing to ATHs, real estate tumbling like a mfer because of airbnb properties flooding the RE markets w inventory, just to name a few. They may decide to make an emergency move toward negative interest, but that's not going to help. I think people are going to turn to anything but stocks in that case because it's going to look desperate.
I not disputing all these concerns they are valid, but the market is not rationale , we all know that. but in your first response you cited trading trends, well the trend has not broken, until it does nobody can honestly time that and short it without losing money in the process.