Tata Steel : The Stock Is Ready To Go Southward

Tata Steel has been trading in the corrective zone since the start of "2008 crash", and the same does not seem to have got over yet. This clearly means, "Picture Abhi Baki Hai Mere Dost", though on a negative side. But yes, Tata Steel is yet to get bottom out for those who are awaiting to make a longer term investment. Currently, I will not be commenting on its fundamental side, as it would surely require a deep analysis not only of the company but of the steel industry as a whole, which is still facing recession problems and the effect of other macro economical factors like GDP, Government Policies, International Markets, Currency Valuation, etc. etc etc...
Before we look at the Technical side of it, I would like to say that I have analysed the stock using the famous EWT ( Elliott Wave Theory). Though I am not expert on it, but have working knowledge and still trying to improve my knowledge on it. For those who do not have any idea about EWT , you are requested to go through the basics of the same before reading this post and those who have knowledge of it or an expert on the same, your views and comments are welcome.
So, let us check the Technical side of the stock. For the ease of the reader of this post, I have annotated the wave counts to the extent possible. The stock of Tata steel, from its recent low of 199.70 to it recent high of 441.50 have corrected in simple zigzag (5-3-5) ABC pattern. The wave 4, after making its recent high of 441.50, has corrected about 64.50% of its preceding wave 3.
We can clearly see from the chart that the primary wave 4 seems to have completed at 441.50 and that the Intermediate wave (I) of primary wave 5, or say the last leg, of Cycle wave (C), having looked at the 30 minutes time bar chart, has completed from its high of 441.50 to its end of 366.30. The intermediate wave (II), after retracing more than 89.30%, either have completed or may about to get completed, but does not look to go beyond 441.50.
The Stock of Tata Steel, according to my opinion, is surely going to break its recent low of 199.70 very soon, may be within 3-6 months. Also, the pattern of correction being "flat" type, correction in the stock may extend upto or beyond the end of Cycle wave (A), i.e., 137.50. Traders, who are risk takers and are more of bearish nature, can give a shot with the stop loss of 441.50 for the target 200 or below that.


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