AbhishekHSinghCMT
Short

Tata Steel- Alternate View (small change)- Be careful@470

NSE:TATASTEEL   TATA STEEL LTD
546 9 13
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Analysis
Earlier as shown below in the monthly chart from 1048 highs- I took a-b-c-d-e             (ending@199. 70 lows) - expected an impulsive rally, but now having an alternate count -which can turn into main count & So modified to A-B-C count with B-Wave as a triangle having a-b-c-d-e             internal waves.

As the current move from the 199.70 lows looks doubtful impulsive structure & has very choppy appearance -likely to be an e-leg within the proposed B - wave which has completed or close to complete at current highs of 470.

Traditional Analysis
Trendline passing through 737 & 580 -if extended passes through or can become resistance at current high@470.

Trading Strategy
Bulls should be careful at current stage. As we never jump in trade immediately unless market tells us to do so. Waiting for further confirmation & one of the best trades it could turn out in near future.

Monthly Chart-
Trade active: 10:21 Hrs 22nd Jan2017

Hello Everyone!

A piece of experience- never become bias to trendlines, shapes because it is you want to see it unfolding that way only confirmation is the biggest tool so don't trade in a hurry- always confirm-confirm & confirm before taking a trade.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
http://in.tradingview.com
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Sir, if Tata Steel trades above the red line or above 470 convincingly; then it will be called as a channel breakout chart pattern. So in that case do you see 700 coming in 2017 as metals are rallying very hard globally. It is for the first time in last 4-5 years that mutual funds are also buying this stock. I also do some technicals and I think that it will be 500 in February, 600 by April and a sharp swing up to 700 (No time frame in mind yet)
Reply
Hi, Abhishek,
Greetings,
Seen your analysis on Tata Steel Monthly Chart. Indeed stock is in down trend. But see the fall of price @ " C " You have marked the "C" near by 2019.
It takes Tata Steel 18 month from 200 to 470. Reverse direction may take 20-24 months to see the price of 200-199 again.
If BJP lose this elections in UP/Punjab & Goa. It might see earlier.
2nd thing Japan raised anti dumping duty issue on Metals against India in WTO. If India lose fight in WTO, duty will be caped. And steel import get cheaper.
Like your analysis. Thanks & keep it up. :)
Reply
@milind1126, I am a pure price action analyst left long back looking at fundamentals but cannot deny its role as a catalyst which makes reaction much faster. There is a double bottom with B-D trendline if that gets broken -Tata Steel likely goes deep down below 137.50 - At present people won't agree with this outlook so we will wait for markets only to show us the way in future.
Reply
Pre Budget Rally is pending and any body want to take a positional short may wait for that.
Reply
Hi ,
Thanks for putting up the analysis.

I'm not sure how to put chart here in response
On above monthly Can you draw a trend line connecting April 2010 high and March 2011 High , and than on weekly chart draw the ascending triangle trendline for recent move
when you merge above 2 trendlines you will see there is still some room for upside around 476-477 zone target where Bulls need to get alerted.

Anyways Thanks for sending early alert.

Reply
neneram neneram
@neneram,
Small correction :

Its April 2010 high and January 2011 high (and not the march 2011 as mentioned above)
Reply
As I am a seller I always looking for a shorting opportunity , This one is one of my favorite stock,Please make comment in the following post.
Reply
neneram ajayww2
@ajayww2,
My 2 cents - (unsolicited) , If you are working against the trend , you will be taking scalpers profit and losing out on trend rise (In this case see the rise from from 211 - 455).

Did you go short this on Friday EOD ? if yes Be alert.
Reply
ajayww2 neneram
@neneram,
I had no position yet in Tata steel .As there is one event is pending in the market the pre budget rally I will take any short position only after that.
Reply
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