Path forward ?

Jul 12, 2024

Interesting path forward -

- Unemployment continuing to rise (according to Schwab model we are in a recession)
- Inflation abating to level sub-2.5 (would bring big buyer to the treasury market)
- Fed cutting rates into September 2024 and into 2025 resulting in un-inversion of the yield curve. (Historically start of a recession)

it's a lot of macros fueling what could be a great next 18 months.

Jul 16, 2024

Trade active

Important neckline of reverse H&S at 94.50 or so.. if we break this, we could be off to the races to last year highs.

Jul 31, 2024

Note

Well, no surprises today.

The price action is interesting as we breakthrough the channel (94.04)
My momentum indicator is positive.

An unemployment rate over 4.1 and a non-farm payroll (watch the Sahm rule) below 175 would probably send this to 95 which is for me an important point to cross and would send us to $100+

Aug 9, 2024

Note

could see a period of consolidation from here (week or two), and a significant move up.

Catalyst for accelerated rate cuts: Job number tanking hard.

Aug 12, 2024

Note

let's keep our Wednesday eyes on the :

Core Inflation Rate YoY - We want it below 3.2
and
Inflation Rate YoY - We want it below 2.9

As a reminder, below 2.5, LTB have an inverse correlation to stocks and the big Pensions and other buyers will come back to the table to be buyers.