Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Tumble with -15% crash ??

Oct 24, 2024

On the above monthly chart price action has seen a nice 25% rise since November 2023. A number or reasons now exist to be bearish.

Incidentally, with all the recently published ideas on Tradingview, Without Worries appears to be the only one who is bearish.

The reasons?

1) Broken market structure confirmation.

2) Active price action resistance.

3) Rising wedge. A breakdown confirmation will see price action correct 17%.

4) $76 is the next support level, which is incidentally the measured move forecast by the bearish wedge identified in (3).

Is it possible price action continues to rise as most of Tradingview is calling for? Sure

Is it probable? No.

Ww

Nov 8, 2024

Trade active

20 year note collapse confirmed.
This week price action exits the support channel.

Dec 26, 2024

Note

Was asked about the length of time this correction will occur.
I don't know, no one really does.
However studies on the dollar suggest the 20 year Bond will continue correcting through until mid 2026.

Jan 7

Note

-7% so far, -8% to go.

Bond holders can't exit quickly enough.

Jan 14

Note

Bond holders and I imagine a fair few banks running a cold sweat right about now.

8-10% down so far, plenty more to go.

Don't expect the target area to be support for longs, that thinking is for retail traders.