kkarmayogi
Long

Altcoin Market Cap in BTC - Long-Term View

Let me just start by saying that I do realize that my methods are quite unorthodox, but I'm sure you'll find them convincing nonetheless. Thank you for reading, and please show your support by hitting the "Like" / "Follow" button now.

The chart you're seeing here is the market cap of all altcoins combined in BTC (not USD). The formula used is TOTAL2 / BTCUSD . It is my opinion that looking at it in USD just taints one's view, and it's very difficult to draw conclusions from that data. As you can see here, the data is very clean, reliable, and tells a really good story.

In this weekly chart, you can see that the altcoin market established a support in Feb 2017 (lower yellow line), which it has not broken till date. It then established another support during the crypto Christmas of Dec '17 (upper yellow line), which was tested in May '19, and broken in June '19. So we're back to our original support, which has now been tested 3 times, and held.

There are also two resistance lines shown (in blue). Our solid support helped break the first resistance line in Jan '20, and we are at this moment getting squeezed between the solid support and the next resistance line. You'll also notice that the 50 Week EMA (orange line) is forming a confluence with the resistance line overhead, which has historically also acted as a support/resistance .

Another thing to look at is the Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) at the bottom of the screen, which I believe is indicating a bullish divergence in the weekly timeframe . If you want to know why I'm looking at this indicator, see my tutorial linked below.

When I think of all these factors combined: strong support underneath, 50 Week EMA overhead that has been pierced twice recently, and squeeze between support and resistance , combined with the fact that the support didn't break even during the COVID crash, and the general positive energy in the altcoin market right now, I can't help but feel bullish about the altcoin market. The squeeze seems to be terminating in the third week of July, so I think we will have a decision by then.

The wildcard is the impending potential stock market crash, but seeing as the last crash (Mar '20) actually gave the altcoin market a pump, I'm not worried about that at all. Keep in mind though that I'm talking about prices in BTC , not USD, so if you're trading altcoins in USD then you have to take the price of BTC in USD into account... forewarned is forearmed.

This is my idea on how the altcoin market might behave in the coming weeks. If you find it helpful, please Like the idea. Also would be great to Follow me so you can be notified of my future ideas.

Do you agree or disagree with me? Do you have any feedback? Let me know in the comments.

Disclaimer
No Investment Advice Provided
Any opinions, chats, messages, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this Post/Idea or in connection with it are provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. This Post/Idea should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent market research before making your actual trading decisions. Opinions, market data, recommendations or any other content is subject to change at any time without notice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
I do not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of trading decisions. I do not recommend making hurried trading decisions. You should always understand that PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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