TSLA overheating and valuations are currently stretched for even the most optimistic assumptions. Based on current valuations at $490, Tesla would need to be delivering 1,300,000 cars within the next 5 years. In my models, stock is fairly valued at +/- 280 but with an initial target of 360.
On technical side at the top here you will notice exhaustion as predicted deliveries enter into "overpromised" territory. Of course the usual crowd will defend with China plant opening and unicorns expected. Based on current expectations, TSLA will need to deliver almost 475k cars this year and with demand starting to cough via late cycle fears this is looking doubtful to say the least.
Flow wise, actively selling 490 overshoots with initial targets at 360 followed by 280 extensions. While to the topside, invalidation and reassessment necessary at 525. Tracking closely delivery numbers for 2020 but with the boat fully loaded on one side and short interest as a percentage of float still below 20% it is a screaming sell.
Good luck all those on the sell-side in TSLA over the coming sessions.
Trade active
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A soft opening and rough manufacturing payrolls, looks very good for sellers.
Not sure you gave intrinsic value any weight. Tesla continues to get support from governments, and is the only American company allowed to run independently in China . China’s middle class is the total population of United States and plan on going full combustion free by 2030. Tesla second iteration cars in Germany (breaking ground) will be best equipped since Europe‘a goal is to go combustion-less by 2030. On top of all this, Tesla makes half the worlds Lithion Ion batteries and growing. His Ai data 9billion road miles compared to his closest competitor Waymo to claim 6M. They are light years ahead in terms of real-world computer vision data and will only get better since China 🇨🇳 is better equipped governmentally to offer more incentives to meet their greener goals.
Noates
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@drinoman, agree with all of this, Tesla are def. heading in the right direction, but does that therefore justify the price at current levels?
Sure @drinoman I agree is all sounding superb and fantastic for the long-term. In the immediate term however - valuations look stretched to say the least. To put the cherry on top, when consumer starts coughing (btw some early hints in play today with NFP) no one will be buying overpriced bat-mobiles :)
Noates
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Nailed that one.
Th3B0Y
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Just for information's sake: Tesla is NOT just a car company.