Hi guys, what a day. I had to wait till afternoon for the short opprtunities. The patience really paid. I had three nice trades and I would like to share one special trade in UPL.
Price Volume Analysis It opened with a gap down and made a spike low (see A). Later it broke that low and formed two more spikes with larger volumes, clear indication of some buying power. Buyer had a nice rally to retest day's high but soon seller came back (see B). After that, the stock struggled nearly 2 hours to breach the day's high. At this point I was expecting the break of high where price action gets into the gap zone and make some bearish signal (a fake breakout), that would have been my trigger for short entry. Unfortunately that didn't happened. But the overall market was breaking down and UPL, a weak stock, was standing still. That was alarming. It made a small last attempt to go higher but failed. Some people would call it triple top, well that's in intraday so not that important. But failures are important.
The Trigger And then came the trigger which is not visible in this chart but is there in the 5min. chart or lower (will be posted in the update). It was a huge spiking volume with no real progress on 5min chart (the candle closed green with a very small range). It alerted me that if the price heads lower, that would mean that sellers will surely take control (of course the overall downtrend gave additional fire to the idea). The triggered forced me to take the short trade at 745.80. It was a quick sell-off afterwards, which took it to my conservative target of 739.20. It was a nice 1% down move caught later in the day. I could have made more but time constraint kept me conservative. Its always good to combine intraday trades with your swing trades.
I hope I was able to throw some light upon the chosen topic. Your likes are important, so keep hitting.
Trade safe Learn from wins & losses to better plan for the future
Regards Bravo
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You can observe that it was highest volume of the day.
cool beans! So that big green candle was a Short covering?
if It wanst for the red-nifty_ i wud hv thoguht that its time to go long :P since Zhunzhunwala got filled with 8 times the average volume, now it willl shoot up the resistance and fill the gap. hmm
Bravetotrade
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@Einstein15, May be u r right. For me that small little candle with huge volume was supply, may be some big chunk exchanged hands but Nifty helped in this trade. I dun follow JhunJhunwala :D, I have heard that he stayed invested in Praj ind for years but the stock shoot up when he exited. Nobody is always right. As I say that I trade what the chart tells me. News and big events would keep coming but we are all right as long as we are in the right direction :-I
Einstein15
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@Bravetotrade, Nicely put.
also,By Jhunjhunwala i meant a big fish or a big order. I dont follow him either. Hm yes charts indeed, Just that the difference in reading in the volume & candle.If only it was a red colored volume bar. :D
Bravetotrade
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@Einstein15, Right. That's good that you dun follow him. It does not seem either b'coz you are the best artist on TV :) In price volume analysis if there is a huge volume bar with no real price move then the price starts following the trend in the few successive bars ( as far as I understand this, it could have some different interpretations for other chart readers). Its not that the other interpretations are wrong but the trade should be right :D
Einstein15
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@Bravetotrade, " In price volume analysis if there is a huge volume bar with no real price move then the price starts following the trend " now thats the REAL GIST of that trade. Glad you put it that way its easier to understand. :D Thats soo going on my Jhonny_Bravo_Section of the wall :D
Thank you!
Bravetotrade
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@Einstein15, hahaha..this is called healthy discussion 😎
I 'd love to see that 'wall of fame'.
Bravetotrade
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@Einstein15, ..price starts following the trend" but that is the immediately succeeding trend..it could be continuation or a reversal trend.
if It wanst for the red-nifty_ i wud hv thoguht that its time to go long :P since Zhunzhunwala got filled with 8 times the average volume, now it willl shoot up the resistance and fill the gap. hmm