In order to inform ourselves about the dangers of this move, we shall in what follows point to a few live charts which we called live together from 2019 that the 2s5s was going to invert frantically, and was a bad sign. It enables occupation of the dominos, which for those following long enough will know the one thing we always through individually is our playbook.
1ļøā£ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ā
2ļøā£ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ā
3ļøā£ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. ā ā
Powell's noble attempt to pick a fight with the end game in an economic cycle can be regarded as having come to nothing. The threat comes from confidence and credit. Aiming for a complete annihilation across risk assets later in 2021, the presence of the inversion was sufficient. Now this move is being made with momentum.
Game
Set
...& Match
The simplest example is to explain the move with diagrams which was the wish here. To occupy a piece of tradingview real estate with a live walk through in the end of an economic cycle. This could be considered as a momentum move in the sense of the word. The rule is:
Iām long vol for a very long time. Insane risks are palatable but you need to understand the game otherwise you have a very high likelihood of total destruction. Stay long vol short dollars.
We are entering into a series of exchanges between public and private assets, the door is closing, like in the Star Wars movie when Chewy and Harrison Ford are running to the doors, we can see the door closing in China, and in Russia and yet we still have a chance to get out.
An exchange towards a decentralised world is possibly into 2032.
@TradingView, IS There a tutorial on how to make custom charts such as this uso5y-uso2y (i.e adding/ subtracting or inverting data?)
zfn
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@wolffarchitecture, literally just typing in "US05Y-US20Y" in the ticker search ;). For me, however, I'm only getting data from May 2020 - present.. Might be due to not being premium/pro
EBITDAtiger
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Excellent post, but honestly terrifying. Best suggestions for ways to play this or hedge against the downside?