The market lately has been very unstable to say the least and has been willing to jump onto any boat it can in order to avoid inflation, However the price action we are seeing on the 30 YR seems to indicate that Inflation fears are overblown and that the Value if the Dollar index will likely remain stable.
While looking through the charts i noticed that there was an unusually high correlation between the 30YR Bonds and the VIX: Starting March 3rd 2014 as marked by the green vertical line on both charts. You can see that most Green Months in the 30 YR results in a Green Month in The VIX. I assume this is because many investors buy bonds in times of market uncertainty as a hedge against potential downturns in the value of equities and securities.
Todays Surge in Treasury Bonds could signal: A rise in Volatility to come, A downturn in the Stock market, and a Rise in both the Value and Confidence in the US Dollar.
would love to hear another update from you! we coukd all use a good US30 analyzer with this kind of viewpoint.
RizeSenpai
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@offgridder, Not Much need for an updated analysis of this chart right now as things remain the same. Still waiting for the move in either direction to confirm the validity of this trade.
@ElMoudy, Out of all of the Indexes, US30 looks the strongest. Nothing on the US30 chart would have me believe that it will be bearish but the US30 usually follows the SPX so if the SPX goes down then the US30 will likely go down anyway
ElMoudy
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@RizeSenpai Thank you, let's see how it will go next week
offgridder
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I trade US30, newly, so I thank-you for assisting me in learning.
RizeSenpai
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@offgridder, No problem, It's fun sharing my observations