USDCAD: H4 Bearish CRT Retracement Play

May 10

The displacement already happened.
Now the market is deciding whether this is reaccumulation… or redistribution.

USDCAD printed a clear H4 Bearish CRT, shifting the short-term narrative and establishing a defined dealing range between the candle’s high and low. Right now, price is rotating lower after the impulse, and the focus shifts toward how it reacts around the equilibrium.

Current framework:

H4 Bearish CRT established
Price expected to retrace toward the 50% equilibrium of the CRT candle
Midpoint acting as key decision zone
High and low of the CRT candle defining the active range

My expectation:
Price taps into the 50% level and attempts to find support. If buyers fail to defend equilibrium, then the probability increases for a continuation lower toward the low of the H4 CRT candle.

That’s the important part:
The midpoint reaction determines the next bias.

Key idea:
Strong displacement candles create ranges that institutions respect.
The equilibrium becomes the battlefield.

Most traders focus only on direction.
But the real edge comes from watching how price behaves inside the range.

Acceptance above equilibrium keeps recovery alive.
Failure opens the door for another leg lower.

May 12

Trade active

1st TP done

May 12

Trade closed: target reached

All TP smashed