I believe that we are close to at least a short term high for USDCAD. Nevertheless it all depends on the current move. If it shows an acceleration we should simply be looking at buying dips (consolidations and continuations). However I keep in mind that a reversal is closing in from 1.3064-1.3085 zone or maybe the top is already in place. Updates will follow but keep an eye on a potential bearish break especially if we see a last attempt higher to take out the previous high at 1.3014
We saw the bearish break and price is currently consolidating. IF it breaks lower now we have a sell trade. If not there is still the potential of that extension higher. So let the market tell us what to do.
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For those trading USDCAD. This is an EXAMPLE of what I mean with keep an open bias. Nothing changed yet but I prepare scenario's so I can adjust when needed.
IF we see a bullish break and a minor impulse keep in mind the levels I mentioned in the original post in case of and extension higher (1.3064-1.3085).
I show my trading style here on Tradingview but on my website I will present live webinars and daily updates on all pairs I trade as a fund manager. It takes a bit longer to launch the website than anticipated but it is like trading, I like it perfect before I act. Hope these posts help you all. Feel free to give feedback.
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I mentioned 1.28 yesterday and due to the structure I think we need at least one leg lower which will bring us to that target. However the current consolidation might need a little more time. Watch for it to settle and look to sell the bearish continuation. Keep in mind that if you are not in the trade yet you have to manage this set-up on lower time frames for a minimum Risk/Reward of 1/2. One of my rules is that I need at least 1/3 and a succesratio of more than 90%. What I try to say is that it depends on the consolidation whether or not a risk/reward of at least 1/3 is possible. Therefore we need a slightly deeper retrace (say 1.288) which will most likely also provide a 'cleaner' sell set-up.
Trade closed: target reached
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Price hit target @ 1.28.
Comments
robdriver60
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stuyts tim, thank you for the offer of help, i do appreciate you taking your time for these postings.
SamehAnwerMohammed
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it seems now that it will go down I will wait for confirmation of minor consolidation to sell
TimStuyts
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Be patience and wait for confirmations on the time frame you like to trade this potential move from, so what you say makes perfect sense. It still has the potential to take out the previous high.
robdriver60
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styuts tim, thanks for the posting, nice clean and easy to understand charts. thanks again
TimStuyts
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You're welcome. Let me know if you need anything! Good trading to you!
glaazie
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im in the sell you are targeting 38.2 ?
TimStuyts
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Very well!. I'm looking for 1.28 and maybe further but have to determine that later after some more price action. But keep an open bias at all times in terms of impulse/corrections.
TimStuyts
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We saw the bearish break and price is currently consolidating. IF it breaks lower now we have a sell trade. If not there is still the potential of that extension higher. So let the market tell us what to do.