Encircled is the red eclipse is an area we should really be on the look out for technically. It's sitting on our quarterly 2 standard deviation line, this means 2 things either we can go in to a mean reversion play. If this is the prevailing outcome the mean of the pair sits at around 1.405, Now the 2nd out come, As prices fall in to a 2 standard deviation the narrative driven price can greatly increase the volatility on move producing certain chart pattern of strong trend & direction this case will see an extended leg downward until we approach the 3rd standard deviation.
* Trick to understand Standard Deviation Think of it as time spent in a area +1 / -1 SD = 64% of time price trades between 1 and -1 -2 / -1 SD = 13% of time price trades between -2 and -1 -3 / -2 SD = 2.1% of time price trades between -3 and -2
Hence when it comes to risk evaluation an understanding of the Standard Deviation is a huge asset when needing to price in risk