USDINR - Indian Market Barometer Part 1-Bounce Till 65.80

FX_IDC:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
548 14
The fall from 69.05 was very impulsive post double top@68.80-69.05 Zone, which completed wave 3 at 261.8% of wave 1 distance. Looking for a retracement in wave 4- which travels 38.2% at 65.85 levels.
The zone of 65.80-65.95 is prior support zone which can be retested & can form resistance for USDINR .

Looking at the structure, Nifty is in hold of Bulls- who are not ready to leave. So, post retracement to 65.80-65.95 -if happens & dollar rupee starts falling as cited above, then Nifty could resume its upmove post current consolidation or small correction for new highs next.

Trading Strategy
Looking for the push in the zone 65.80-65.95 & getting resistance from earlier support zone is the minimum move which it should travel next. We will take USDINR move in parts - first till 64.95-65.00 Zone & Later above 65 for 65.40-65.50 -Above 65.50 for 65.80-65.95

Trade active: 18:41 Hrs 15th May2017

Last Price@64.08

It turned down from earlier resistance zone of 64.70-64.80 - once it crosses & sustains above 64.80 - In that scenario we will expect a move till 65.70-65.80 as suggested above in parts.

Trade active: 20:43 Hrs 18th May2017

Last Price@64.90

We got first part above 64.70 to 65.00 & above 65 to 65.25 (partial target).
Trade active: 18:22 Hrs 23rd May2017

Last Price@64.81

Above 65.23 -recent high from where it had a fall & doing sideways. Once it crosses 65.25 - Next zone shall be 65.80-65.95
Trade active: 13:45 Hrs 5th June2017

Last Price@64.35

Only above 65.25 we move next else .......
Trade active: 15:51 Hrs 2nd Aug2017

Last Price@63.77

Impulsive sequence 1-2-3-4-5 looks to be in final touch and moving next will decide the gamut of markets & can be crucial clue for equity markets as well.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
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India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
abhishek impressed n learned a lot from ur analysis unbelievable n rocking analysis
I think the decrease in repo rate caused the downfall
USD is going down everyday...any chances for a pull back to 65 or 66 levels?
AbhishekHSinghCMT SachinGupta1986
@SachinGupta1986, It will bounce but will take time.
USD is going down everyday...any chances for a pull back to 65 or 66 levels?
what is the possibility of it touching again 68 ....if you can give long term view..
@atiqy2k, Telling this at the moment is tough -we need to wait for 3 -4 months when dollar forms a bottom & starts moving upside which will decide market direction as well. I am extremely bearish on markets, but have no confirmation yet. 1st clue which i got in 5-6 months is pharma stocks which got badly beaten & they are always first to fall. If you catch my Auropharma update - i suggested at 895 that we are moving down to 570-580's.

atiqy2k AbhishekHSinghCMT
Hi ,
Thanks for your post , very important post
So Should I assume the current correction in Nifty to continue till Rupee goes to 65.85 ? And then Nifty will have another leg up making new high ??

@neneram, Yes, that is what I am assuming but rupee weakens next above 65.25 for 65.85
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