JohnSikes73

Massive Selling of USD

Short
OANDA:USDINR   U.S. Dollar / Indian Rupee
This huge weakening of the greenback comes at the backdrop of resurging covid cases in United States as compared to the rest of the world. The past couple of days has seen greater than 30k new daily cases. So the "emergency of dollar demand" might be waning at least till the fear of the second wave lasts and the rest of the world recovers steadily. More favorable currencies like YEN, EUR and even CNY (chinese yuan is slowly becoming a pretty strong alternative to dollar) will be sought after while the USD selloff lasts.

75.5 has been a strong support. Let's see how close can it get till Friday (expiry date of futures and options for USDINR ), or does it even breach the line.
If there are no more significant violence along the Indo-China border this week (seems unlikely as the high level military officials from both sides have been talking constantly), the current trend will continue.

Comments

Till what level it can fall now
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JohnSikes73 sarabjeetrana
@sarabjeetrana, This is very tricky question. I'm analyzing the possible range for the month of July. Now if you look at the 1d chart for USDINR, you'll see until 11th March it was hovering around 71.5. From there within 7 trading sessions it went up to 74.6. Within the next 10 trading sessions, it went up to near about its highest point of 76.5. Since then it has been trading in the range resisted by 76.5 and supported by 75.2. The latter support might be broken, but then 74.5 will act as a massive support. It won't be easy to breach that. People were saying as things go back to normal dollar crash is inevitable. But do you see things going back to normal? Both US and India have cases rising at record rates daily. This will hurt US more than India for the time being as investors will venture out of dollar to buy assets in other currencies like euro/yen etc. But in the long run, we know India will be suffering more. Right now the prospect of rapid economic recovery seems grim. Also remember the present RBI governor has a preference of a weaker rupee as a weaker currency help make exports cheaper, imports expensive and increases inflation. Know this, a weaker currency helps a protectionist economic policy which is what the Modi government might be going for now (made clear in his 'atmanirbhar' speech). On top of this, we need to be mindful of the Indo-China border issue. Although there has been no more confrontations between the armies of the two sides, but with any hint of escalation we will see INR plummet temporarily. So avoid trading on weekly options.
So to cut it short, till the cases keep rising in US, the scrip will be trading in a consolidation (even slightly bearish). Supports are at 75.2, 74.5, 74. If there are escalations in the border then the scrip will rally very fast (the speed will depend on the severity of the news). As for resistances, 76 and then 76.5 might be a good resistance, but since INR is a emerging market currency such currency pairs, do not have strong resistance above. That's just way it is. Especially during such tumultuous times where so many events are taking place at once.
If you are moderately risk taking person, you can sell 75 Put options for July (expiring on 29th July). If you feel that rupee is appreciating and dollar is depreciating even after a week (highly unlikely), then you can sell 76.5 or 76.25 Call options (expiring on 29th July) depending on you risk appetite. Hope this helps. If you have more questions, feel free to ask. As I said earlier I will be publishing my view for July in a separate post, but this is what I feel as of now and I don't think the view will differ much (maybe I'll add some more information at best).
Reply
jithinmp2710 JohnSikes73
@JohnSikes73, do you see further fall now
Reply
remember from here 75.48 it will bounce up
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contact2himanshuk dineshmarwaha98
@dineshmarwaha98, I hope i will long 76 call 150 lot bro it's scaring
+2 Reply
dineshmarwaha98 contact2himanshuk
@contact2himanshuk, no long the 75.5 ce
Reply
JohnSikes73 contact2himanshuk
@contact2himanshuk, Hope you did not buy the call. If you did, I feel sorry for you.
Reply
JohnSikes73 dineshmarwaha98
@dineshmarwaha98, Is there any reason as to why you think it will bounce up and bounce up till which point to be precise?
+3 Reply
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