Let's Discus. I have been tracking USDINR since august. I am smol and I'm not a professional. I trade all F&O, Equity, Commodity and Currency. I follow a Strict Trading Plan, Trend lines, Index's Price Action, Technical and Fundamentals.
Pardon me if I'm being late for your reply. I don't always being connected to the internet but I will try my level best to communicate with your each point.
🤔 With ever falling crude price, fundamentally I see downward move after today’s retracement.
Ilikethehell
⋅
@RKJS, you're right! I was thinking that way too. Like if crude oil consolidate in a bearish symmetrical triangle zone and also before Indian market closing crude was at same position 52.45.
Following crude oil bearish zone, Indian indexes was lookin bearish after a big bullish trend of this week at this position a profit booking can expected because of so much negative news remain unsolved in this week but it never happened instead all Indian index closed in positive and INR's depreciation ingored.
following this trend USDINR should be at 71.20 but it went up to 72.020 day's high.
Also Today's economic calendar was a big header and little tricky.
US Dollas index was in bullish trend.
Indian WTI inflation was negative.
US retail inflation was positive. There are so many economic sentiment was in favor of USD.
4 hours Technical chart 1 hour, 30,15 mins chart was looking bearish for INR and also respecting the same bearish trend line on every pullback happens So above all the analysis I choose to go long.
USDINR at 68,69,70 again will take long time. People are having 5 years target USDINR at 75.
RKJS
⋅
@Jahir_Jack, but all shocks - rbi governor, election- of the have been well digested over last week..thus showing signs of strength.. so hereafter things should stabilise
Ilikethehell
⋅
@RKJS, Yup according to that, things should be stabilize. I think USDINR getting a grip like other high volatility currencies with big fluctuation happens and you maybe aware of that USDINR's weekly options spread also introduced by NSE on 4 December so big institution's attention catches here they like this type of high liquid instrument with high fluctuation.
In my opinion USDINR will fluctuate between 70.50 to 74.50. and 68,69 position is abandoned and forgotten till 2019 election confirms and new government takes charge.
Check out @HariRamKumar 's chart here how trend line respected and the strong pattern showing up trend
Ilikethehell
⋅
@RKJS, Remembering your point you were right. in a volatile market anything is possible just don't be an ignorant. learned something new
Hari-Ram-Kumar
⋅
@Jahir_Jack, long term looks bullish, however it can be considered to be under correction if it deviates support.
It shall continue uptrend if it breaks resistance. I know just these simple strategies. ☺
Ilikethehell
⋅
@HariRamKumar, Yes, you're right! it is an uptrend without any doubt till it breaks the continuation trend line we can assume 73 even possible near term
Hari-Ram-Kumar
⋅
@Jahir_Jack, it's not likely to hit 73. Correction trend is broken by an hourly close above it in addition the uptrend is confirmed with support at trend line. I am entering long upon INDIA session opening on Monday with target 73. I don't believe in candlesticks as their appearance vary based on different time zones. I trade based on patterns and these patterns are reflection of market readiness for upcoming fundamental outcomes. Pattern breakouts does not depend on time zones and hence advantageous.
Ilikethehell
⋅
@HariRamKumar, You're right! I recently fall in love with trend lines and patterns they are much reliable than candle sticks and technical indicators.
I see real advantages of pattern and trend line is that it keeps you constant and reliability of profiting following the same direction without any hurdle.
Another point is that market's fundamentals also works great according to trend line and patterns they're so co-related and support each other.
anyways let's see Monday opening a gap up expected to 72.30 and then afternoon market pullback to 71.80 then next target 73 possible if this trend continues