About three months ago I shared my long term view for Oil towards 20 and I still favor that. I believe price is setting up a for triangle consolidation. Many might say it is too soon to tell and I have to admit that might be correct. However a triangle shows certain characteristics and often follows a certain structure. There are also many fundamental reasons to favor this. That and the monthly time frame tell me that this is the most likely scenario at the moment. This will result in a long term consolidation, however the range is relatively large and will therefore still present many trading opportunities. Short term I'm looking for a break lower. For my post of 3 months ago see below:
The 1 hour time frame shows an important contraction zone on the left and we need to break below for more bearish price action and high probability sell trades.
see my most recent update for context. Let me know if it isn't clear.
TomPower
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Tim. Losing your vision here. To be honest you were alone on this short. That is why I am gunshy.
TimStuyts
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This is what I stated in my last post:
'I still favor a move lower. If it moves higher and breaks above 49 I have to adjust but until that happens I favor another leg lower. Even if we move above 49 I don't think the long term bottom for oil is in place. But we will see, for now I focus on a potential reversal.'
I've reason to believe that once this correction is over we need a new low (long term, back to 2009).After the big winner by means of the short call (when most traders were biased long) I didn't trade Oil. There was no reason for me, buying was too risky for me in this zone and risk/reward not interesting enough. So I traded other instruments.
If you don't understand a comment or post from me please try to explain what you don't understand.
The fact that I'm often alone in my bias is a good thing, only 5% of the traders actually win so following the herd is a way to loose your account. Besides I don't need to follow others and haven't seen anything that can change my mind just yet. I also don't need to be right as long as I only trade when I'm right. That's why I always present IF=THEN scenario's.
If I explain my whole analysis I will confuse most traders so I either explain a clear set-up with context or I don't post.
TomPower
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No problem I'm just saying that I'm a one horse trader so I'm not looking at other instruments this is the one. Needless to say somebody is riding these moves before it hits 49.
TomPower
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Tim. The differences are Stark between some of the gurus on here. Another guy is calling this a bottom and buying it.
Anyway it's like the song by rush they call me the Seeker I won't find out till I die
TimStuyts
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To me it seems hard to believe that Oil found a long term bottom due to the deflationary scenario the global economy is in. The QE also influenced/manipulated the price of Oil but in the end price does what it has to do no matter what Central banks do. Therefore and because of the monthly structure I see a triangle unfolding for Oil where wave B is currently in progress. But follow your plan and trade what you see. Me personal however hold my shorts for now and will start buying once wave B of the triangle is in place. Because the major bearish structure doesn't look complete to me.