A Vix swing, which did not require "majority" or "consensus", rolled forward under the noses of retail and even some of the larger macro hands. It advanced incredibly far reaching a high of 84.8 ... Don't be a dick for a tick !!! Finally there is an opportunity to clear all targets in the breakthrough.
As an example of this, let us turn to the well-know chart VIX - Capitulation Waters.
There followed the initial 38 target and 85 extension. The attack was carried out with sufficient substance via Covid-19, if the panic subsides or is reaching a "peak" then Vol must fight for places to make a stand. So the natural indications are 38 and 25 (now that sellers can advance once more).
Until this excellent swing was played, the closing of the highs was more of an ideal than reality... Coronavirus turned this ideal into the said reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the notional restraint of price gives way to an information block.
So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre, the practicality of VIX at these levels creates two new inevitabilities:
(1) ...Recession
(2) ... Consumer Confidence reaching decade highs
Here I would like to point out that, selling VIX remains the correct strategic plan; you can see why in the note in Gold's move. Buyers forsakes the main plan - and tries once more to get in the 1700 highs; but only manages to do so because sellers failed to spot a subtle resource . Naturally in VIX it is pragmatic to aim for 38 and 25 driving Vol buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to subordinate the strategically necessary plan to the idea of recessionary effect. As a whole, the classical weakness for art!
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments, charts and etc coming! I hope it has helped, finally time to unwind a flawless +500% swing to the topside from Q419. Well done all those that caught the move!
Trade active
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TYVIX also marking the highs?
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A nice move under 60 here...trailing time for the close
@ridethepig any update here. Will we see another spike to 70?
battousai1130
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@ridethepig Any chance it will make one final swing upward in the next two weeks before going down? I am being selfish here since my Spy puts are being killed due to IV crush.
lu1977hk
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your best chart ever!! congratulations... Do we continue to 25 straight?
ridethepig
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Thanks. Indeed a nice spike for some profit taking @lu1977hk ... Aggressive trailing with the rest for a jackpot!
mja18856
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vix dropping to these levels would mean coronapanic going away. Lets hope so but... serious obstacles with this ahead :/
ridethepig
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Panic will be with us at least till month-end and into early April according to my models @mja18856
mja18856
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@ridethepig, thats what I'm thinking too. Would you be willing to publish an analysis on DJIA or SPX ? I'm very curioous of your views about it
ridethepig
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Tracking an initial retrace back towards 23,000 @mja18856 I will open a detailed post about this later...a heads up to remain nimble
mja18856
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@ridethepig, Thank you for your response and great ideas (the XAU recent ideas was a masterpiece ;) )