VPA_TRADER

WEDGE-BREAKOUT-UPTREND-PRICE-ACTION-VOLUME-PROFILE

Long
NSE:WELSPUNIND   WELSPUN INDIA
Disclaimer-:
1. FOR WHOM VOLUME PROFILE AND MY METHOD IS A LITTLE NEW OR BLURRY . I WILL SOON PUT UP AN EDUCATIONAL POST WITH DETAILS AND EXAMPLES. WE CAN HAVE A SERIES OF DISCUSSIONS THERE TOO. DO FOLLOW MY ACCOUNT TO GET NOTIFIED.
2. Do ask your questions in the comments if any.

Volume Profile-:
In volume profile we can compare the levels of volume at different price levels historically and current price levels to try to find the strength of current move and strength of the resistance it might face.
If the up-move (currently) and its previous accumulation's volume is very high compared to the volume of its historical resistance level it means we have more strength in up-move and weak resistances can be crossed.

IMPORTANT OBSERVATIONS-:
1. Stock was declining for a while.
2. Gave a nice falling wedge or triangular pattern breakout and started rising.
3. Recently accumulated over a range and then gave a breakout.
4. Has retraced a little with low volume and thus has given us an opportunity to enter with confirmation.
5. The volume of the accumulation level is too high compared to the volume at its all time high, which shows its a weak resistance level and there is a high chance it will be broken.

TARGET WITH LOGIC:

Since all-time-high has a weak resistance we might make a target farther than the all time high.

Since the up-move is strong and accumulation has nice volume . So a Fib Extension target of 168% makes sense since , since the rally started the recent accumulation has more volume than ever before so the current expected up-move should be more than the previous rally. So 168%

MY APOLOGIES-:
Of course the best entry would have been after breakout of the wedge pattern with confirmation but I had not come across the stock at that time due to my negligence.

(See my other recent posts, some of them have recently given wedge breakout with good opportunities)

ENTRY and STOP-LOSS
Entry at CMP above 90 level with a conservative stop-loss at the support of accumulation which is at 65 would be better than an aggressive stop-loss.
Enter only if next time the entry price gives a reasonable RR ratio as per your strategy.

Keep trailing stop-loss. One of the ways is to use Moving Average with Average True Range (14) (ATR) as buffer.

EXIT

IF there is bearishness near the all time high, a trailed stop-loss should be at place and obeyed.

Since the target is above all time high. Its a provisional target level. So it doesn't make sense to exit at target rather hold on to it as much as possible and keep trailing stop-loss. Following can be used as exit signals or bearishness signals.

1. If there is bearish candlestick pattern in 1W timeframe, stop-loss can be trailed to a nearby support level .(Like Candle Low)
2. If there is RSI Divergence in 1W timeframe, better to exit at close of 1W since afterwards there can be long consolidation or reversal.
3. If the trailing stop-loss is hit, please exit


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**I WILL POST NECESSARY , SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS THREAD LIKE ADDITION TO POSITION, EXIT SIGNALS ETC.
TO AVOID MISSING OUT ON UPDATES PLEASE REMEMBER TO FOLLOW THE POST AND MY ACCOUNT.

**YOU CAN TURN ON NOTIFICATION TO BE UPDATED OF CHANGES
**ANY COMMENT ON THE ANALYSIS WILL BE HIGHLY APPRECIATED.

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