Last week Tuesday commercial long contracts were 87538, short contracts on the same day were 86121. At the same time large speculators short contracts jumped from 7158 to 16598. This is a rare moment when most of the commercials think there is no need to hedge production and hedge funds became very convinced silver is going lower. I will be trading this with the commercials...
Though there is still chance that today or tomorrow they hit silver for a slightly lower low, but I want to be in a long position before the rally starts. news.goldseek.com/COT/1535743594.php
Large specs incresed the shorts contract again this week by 8897 and decreased the longs by 3479 contracts. This resulted that large specs are in a 28974 contract short position. At the same time commercials decreased their short positions by 19313 contracts. So now the commercials are at the net long position of 14163 contracts. In the last 20 years this never happened.
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Silver is breaking the down trendline and breaking out of the consolidation.
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We are in the new Intermediate cycle. The gains are going to be huge.
Trade closed manually
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I’m afraid it’s going to be a false breakout. I will collect the small gains here.
I think we will get a $3 pop on Silver but beyond that its anyone's guess.
JesseL
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Calm before the storm right now. Getting king of spooky.
JesseL
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Getting kind of spooky....
popshvt
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thanks for this good analysis, i am totally agree, just imagine this commodity already dropped more than 70 percent from 2011 high, this is a buy for long term.
i believe US dollar already topped out
lapin_eliott
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if the sp500 is about to drop it will drag down silver and gold even more. it is strange that at the same time you call for a short on sp500 and a long on silver.
chartwatchers
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@lapin_eliott, It's just a temporary drop when the stock markets start to drop and investors need to get some fund out of their metal positions.
YOu should not make a correlation between stocks and metals only. Always watch the dollar too.
lapin_eliott
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@chartwatchers, yes but the consensus for a potential important move soon to come is the following : important drop of the stock market, generating a peak of the dollar, itself generating a historical low on gold and silver, this is only after this new low on silver and gold, consequence of the dollar peak because of the stock market crash, that gold and silver will make a meteoritic rise. what is your consensus ? moreover right now far too much retails are long silver and gold, so the market still have a lot of room going down to destroy those positions of early buyers before shifting for real to the upside
chartwatchers
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@chartwatchers, Metals can rally when the dollar and stocks are falling together.
I think this is coming now. And commercials are preparing for that kind of move:
no need to hedge your metal production when everybody is buying what you produce . It happend in th first 2 weeks of february 2016.
Silver rallied 2$ and gold 200 $.
lapin_eliott
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@chartwatchers, i see your point but sorry for insisting, but stock and dollar cannot fall together. if stock collapse the cash coming from selling everything will pour into dollar (and in yen and chf) as a buffer. the fall of the dollar will happen only after and not in parallel with stock. this is why it will make certainly a temporary but violent last move (up for usd and down for gold and silver) even if of course i arrive at the same conclusion but on a slighter longer term. when the FED will have to intervene to reverse policy to calm down the stock crash, at this moment only the dollar buffer won't make any sense and dollar will fall allowing metal to rise