XAUUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Fibonacci Confluence Target in Focus

Fundamental Analysis

Gold remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.

For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts remain weak below EMA resistance.

Technical Analysis

On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. This confirms that the short-term trend remains bearish, with the EMA structure acting as dynamic resistance above price.

Price is currently around 3,983 after a strong bearish continuation move. The market has already broken below the previous support area and is now moving toward the lower Fibonacci liquidity zones.

The key value sell zone is around 4,054 - 4,068. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level, previous structure, and EMA resistance. If gold pulls back into this zone and fails to break higher, sellers may continue to defend the trend.

Below current price, the first important target is around 3,936 - 3,934, which aligns with the Fibonacci 1.618 area. If bearish momentum continues, the deeper target is the Fibonacci confluence zone around 3,810 - 3,804.

Important Key Levels

Current price area: 3,983

Main sell value zone: 4,054 - 4,068

EMA resistance area: 4,054 - 4,099

Short-term invalidation: above 4,099

First Fibonacci target: 3,936 - 3,934

Deeper bearish target: 3,917

Fibonacci confluence target zone: 3,810 - 3,804

Trading Scenario

Main Sell Scenario

Entry: 4,054 - 4,068
Stop Loss: 4,099
Take Profit 1: 3,936
Take Profit 2: 3,917
Take Profit 3: 3,810 - 3,804

Sell Condition

The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,054 - 4,068 Fibonacci and EMA value zone. This area is important because it aligns with the bearish EMA structure and the previous reaction zone.

A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA range.

If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 3,983, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 3,936 - 3,934, followed by 3,917 and the Fibonacci confluence target zone around 3,810 - 3,804.

Entry Conditions

Wait for price to retest 4,054 - 4,068.

Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.

Do not sell directly at the low without a pullback.

A break below 3,936 confirms stronger downside pressure.

If price breaks and holds above 4,099, the sell setup is invalid.

Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci and EMA value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 3,936, 3,917, and the Fibonacci confluence target around 3,810 - 3,804.

Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the EMA value zone first?