possibility of seeing a bigger turnaround?

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Quick update-T.P Hit for Previous short-term trades for gold and silver

At the moment of writing this update our full 250% net short positions in gold -1.65% , silver -0.53% and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.
The USD Index broke above the medium-term reverse head and shoulder pattern and the rising wedge pattern while silver closed below its July 2017 now it's confirmed what we had written in our previous analysis.

The same goes for Gold and Silver crystal clear breakdown which we witnessed in terms of weekly closing prices. The white metal declined with such a big volume which means that the breakdown is very likely to be confirmed, overall implication is very bearish for gold and silver .so nothing really changed but for the sake of the change, we decided to do something unique today.

In today’s analysis, we will present you numbers of key factors that are likely to result in lower Gold , Silver and Mining stocks(precious metals)prices in the coming weeks and months. obviously, we will not discuss them in detail as that would imply writing a book but due to this platform text restriction if we won't be able to finish our post here, we will highly suggest you visit our page(mentioned at the end) for full analysis

we’ll provide very brief summaries of each point that is likely to result in lower Gold , Silver , and Mining stocks(precious metals)prices in the coming weeks and months. Let’s start with the big picture.

1-Apex based reversal shows that the shape of gold decline, The way yellow metal is declining since 2011 is very similar to the way in which gold declined in the 1980s. This is a major issue for gold bulls because it suggests that gold is likely to form new lows.
Long term situation is USD Index is yet another major factor which suggests that the precious metals are about to plunge in a drastic manner.we are not referring to the last couple years chart of USD Index,Instead we are talking about the 48 year chart where you would be able to see the extremely massive confirmed breakout in the case of the USD Index. Implications are profound as it suggests more rallies in the USD Index.

2-The next factor that remains in place is the link between 2012-13 decline to current plunging going on in the yellow metal. we wrote in our previous posts that gold was likely to move higher for about 2-3 weeks in July and then to decline with the strong and major decline will start in august.we have exactly seen that and our previous comments are still up-to-date.

3-On January 28,2018, we saw the major signs from the volume reading in terms of weeks. On Feb 2,2018 we wrote about the major record-breaking monthly volume levels. The implications are bearish anyway and they may contribute to lower gold prices in the future.

4-let's talk about key analogies, The first analogy in silver is between 2008 and last few years. This analogy is shockingly accurate in terms of prices. The WHITE metal rallied to the price levels and to which it declined in 2008 are extremely similar to where it rallied since early 2016. The implications are very bearish .

5-let's talk about the important ratio in the precious metals sector-gold to silver ratio. most analyst and traders have a misconception about may have read some analysis about the ratio is moving or reaching to its long-term resistance at about 80. Instead, the real long long-term resistance in the gold to silver ratio is at about 100. This is the actual level at which the ration really reversed from the long-term perspective.

6-Another factor is the way gold reacted to the extremely positive fundamental news this year and in the previous years. due to some news and some short-term rallies, even some of our investors got excited, we tried to calm them down by posting another analysis.we saw a price barrier of $1350-$1451 in gold within previous years. We saw the news like Russia taking over Crimea, we had trade wars, nuclear threats regarding North Korea. Gold didn't really by this news which shows that P. Ms is not ready to rally yet-it really needs to find the real bottom first.

7-If you have been following our trades for some in trading view or if you are our premium made a lot of money in this year, you know technical analysis and daily written updates matters a lot but if you haven't you might be thinking why you should even care about these charts and daily updates instead of just watching and observing the real-Gold supply and demand , geopolitical conditions, interest rates and so on. you are making a very novice and dumb mistake because the technical analysis of the precious metals market is clearly justified from the fundamental point of view

8-Another major factor which we would address here is the currency sector. Interest rates drive the currency prices but in practice, the reaction can be delayed. The rally in USDX started in early 2018 and it seems that there is much more room for the higher prices in the USDX, This is a bearish implication for the PMs prices, we covered this full subject in our old analysis

9-The next and last factor is the correlation between the Nikkei 225 Index with gold . This correlation is negative.we still view Japanese stock market as an indication of what's likely to happen in the seems that Nikkei value is about to soar in the medium and long-term which indicates lower Gold prices.

The conclusion-our outlook for Gold 0.05% , Silver -0.53% and mining stocks is very bearish for the medium and long-term, and it seems gold 0.05% is likely to plunge more within next 2.5 weeks and it seems $1130 target is very much likely to reach but it may even drop to $1060.We may touch a local bottom later this month, though and we’ll keep you informed regarding the possibility of seeing a bigger turnaround.

we will keep you informed anyway

many regards-Neeraj Pandey
Our existing positions

Sell Limit Price: 15.500

Take Profit: 12.80

Stop Loss: 16.46


Sell limit Price: 1231

Take Profit: 1080

Stop Loss: 1275
( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver -0.53% 0.13% -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).

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