Can Gold clear 4153 to confirm new trend?

Jul 22

Gold has regained bullish momentum over the past two sessions as the U.S. dollar eases from recent highs and risk sentiment stabilizes. However, the broader macro narrative has not changed significantly. The Federal Reserve continues to favor a restrictive policy stance, while markets remain cautious about pricing aggressive rate cuts. Without a meaningful shift in Fed expectations, Gold's recovery is still being driven more by short-term positioning than by a structural change in institutional flows.

This leaves the current rally approaching an important test. Rather than chasing higher prices, institutional traders are likely to focus on whether buyers have enough momentum to reclaim the major resistance zone that has capped price throughout July.

From a technical perspective, Gold has successfully broken the short-term descending trendline and is now trading within an ascending channel on the H4 timeframe, indicating improving short-term momentum. Price is approaching the 4,153 resistance, where Demand, Fair Value Gap (FVG), and previous supply converge. This zone represents the final barrier before a broader trend reversal can be confirmed. A decisive breakout above 4,153 would strengthen the bullish structure and expose the next liquidity zone around 4,200. Until then, this remains a high-probability area for sellers to defend.

PRIMARY SCENARIO

Gold may continue extending toward the 4,153 Demand + FVG resistance. As long as this confluence caps price, the recovery is likely to remain corrective, with sellers potentially re-entering the market and driving Gold back toward the 4,100–4,080 support region.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

A confirmed H4 close above 4,153 would invalidate the current bearish bias, confirming a higher high and opening the path toward the 4,200 resistance zone. Such a breakout would suggest institutional buyers are beginning to regain control of the medium-term trend.

MARKET VIEW

Current Bias: Bearish

Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation

Jul 23

Trade active

Gold respected the previous trading plan almost perfectly. Price rallied into the projected 416x confluence resistance, where the Demand + Fair Value Gap (FVG) + Descending Trendline attracted renewed institutional selling pressure. As expected, buyers failed to secure a confirmed breakout, allowing sellers to regain control of the market.

The rejection from this key resistance triggered a decline of nearly 600 pips, with Gold falling back toward the 410x support area. The reaction once again reinforces the importance of the 416x supply cluster as the market's primary decision point. While the broader recovery structure remains intact above the rising trendline, sellers continue to dominate whenever price trades into premium resistance.

Current Bias: Neutral to Bearish

Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation