Gold tested the POI zone at 4760-4800 yesterday, got rejected again, and is now drifting back toward the trigger level at 4631. April CPI came in at 3.8% year on year, the highest since May 2023 and above forecasts of 3.7%. Core also beat expectations at 2.8%. That is the single most important number for gold right now, and it came in hot.
What happened in the last 24 hours:
Trump rejected Iran's response to the US peace proposal, calling it "totally unacceptable." Tehran had demanded compensation for war damages, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing funds, and ending the US Navy blockade, while omitting any mention of nuclear stockpile delivery Trump's core demand.
Trump then said the ceasefire is on "massive life support" and is meeting his national security team to consider restarting military operations. Israeli PM Netanyahu added fuel by declaring Iran's uranium enrichment facilities must be destroyed.
So the deal that drove gold from 4,497 to 4,765 last week is effectively dead for now. The peace premium is being priced back out. And CPI confirming hot inflation removes the last argument for rate cuts in 2026.
Trump is also scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, covering Iran, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. This is a wildcard. If China agrees to pressure Iran toward a deal, the narrative flips fast.
The chart:
The picture has not changed but the balance of risk has shifted. Price circulated between 4,631 and 4,760 yesterday without conviction. The POI zone (4,760-4,800) rejected price cleanly again. The trigger level at 4,631 continues to act as the floor.
The pattern is intact. But hot CPI and a collapsed deal narrative are testing the patience of anyone long from the trigger.
this is noise.
Levels:
4,760-4,800 -- POI. Rejected multiple times now. THE major resistance area.
4,706 -- 0.236 Fib.
4,703 -- current price. Mid-range, no direction.
4,631 -- TRIGGER. The line that defines bull or bear. Holding for now.
4,590 -- 0.382 Fib.
4,530-50 -- major support area.
Today:
PPI data drops today (May 13). After CPI beat yesterday, a hot PPI would cement the "inflation is not coming down" narrative and add more pressure on gold. A cool PPI would provide slight relief. Global brokerages have scaled back expectations of two rate cuts in 2026, with forecasts now split between some easing and no cuts at all. The market is caught in a paradox: the same escalation that raises safe-haven demand for gold also raises energy prices and inflation, increasing rate hike probability. These two forces cancel each other out, leaving gold going nowhere
Hot CPI confirmed. Deal collapsed. POI ceiling intact. Trigger floor holding. The range continues. PPI today and Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow are the next catalysts.
What happened in the last 24 hours:
Trump rejected Iran's response to the US peace proposal, calling it "totally unacceptable." Tehran had demanded compensation for war damages, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing funds, and ending the US Navy blockade, while omitting any mention of nuclear stockpile delivery Trump's core demand.
Trump then said the ceasefire is on "massive life support" and is meeting his national security team to consider restarting military operations. Israeli PM Netanyahu added fuel by declaring Iran's uranium enrichment facilities must be destroyed.
So the deal that drove gold from 4,497 to 4,765 last week is effectively dead for now. The peace premium is being priced back out. And CPI confirming hot inflation removes the last argument for rate cuts in 2026.
Trump is also scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, covering Iran, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. This is a wildcard. If China agrees to pressure Iran toward a deal, the narrative flips fast.
The chart:
The picture has not changed but the balance of risk has shifted. Price circulated between 4,631 and 4,760 yesterday without conviction. The POI zone (4,760-4,800) rejected price cleanly again. The trigger level at 4,631 continues to act as the floor.
The pattern is intact. But hot CPI and a collapsed deal narrative are testing the patience of anyone long from the trigger.
this is noise.
Levels:
4,760-4,800 -- POI. Rejected multiple times now. THE major resistance area.
4,706 -- 0.236 Fib.
4,703 -- current price. Mid-range, no direction.
4,631 -- TRIGGER. The line that defines bull or bear. Holding for now.
4,590 -- 0.382 Fib.
4,530-50 -- major support area.
Today:
PPI data drops today (May 13). After CPI beat yesterday, a hot PPI would cement the "inflation is not coming down" narrative and add more pressure on gold. A cool PPI would provide slight relief. Global brokerages have scaled back expectations of two rate cuts in 2026, with forecasts now split between some easing and no cuts at all. The market is caught in a paradox: the same escalation that raises safe-haven demand for gold also raises energy prices and inflation, increasing rate hike probability. These two forces cancel each other out, leaving gold going nowhere
Hot CPI confirmed. Deal collapsed. POI ceiling intact. Trigger floor holding. The range continues. PPI today and Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow are the next catalysts.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.