FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
In short our full net short position in gold , silver and mining stocks is well justified from the measurement of risk and reward at the time of writing this article/idea

Are you ready for the exciting ride which is about to happen? If not then be prepare because at the end of this ride it will present us the ultimate long opportunity but before that happens we will have many opportunity to gain some short term profits and guess what we are exactly doing that with our current net short position but it looks like it's just a start

due to very low volume in gold and mining stocks last several days were so boring but yesterday and today's session took it to the extreme and that's what we were expecting that's why we didn't post our article from 2 days because literally nothing has happened,we already emphasize several times that low volume in gold often precedes big decline in precious metals and that's what we are seeing right now and the implication of yesterday's extremely low volume giving a very serious bearish sign

In a below chart you could clearly see that gold stocks break to new 2018 low,from daily perspective it might be not seem important but it is as it was the lowest daily close since late nov 2016
In our previous article/idea we mentioned that gold miners could still move higher but the likelihood of under performing during upswing is somewhat greater,hence the HUI index managed to move up to 174 and then decline again,thing to note is during the upswing HUI index unable to close above 2017 low,this point is validating our bearish view even more but there are other things too which is confirming our bias even more one of it is volume ,check the charts below

during yesterday downswing volume has been increased significantly and that's a clear sign of upcoming bearish move,In the next several days we could see slide in silver prices

let's get right to silver ,similar pattern in white metal is ongoing for now,triangle apex showing generating more sell signal for white metal so we could seen a decline very shortly in silver prices,so now let's figure out how much silver can slide in near term? Based on our analysis silver is likely to slide to 15.200-15.700 before this month ends,that could be a very volatile movement
There are some more valid reasons which are giving us this target area and that's the comparison of previous decline,if the same pattern will be continue we can expect the movement of decline to be same to the size of decline by which the whole pattern has been started

GOLD Target-In the case of gold we can't figure out the self similar pattern,so we think that current declining in gold will be similar to the previous short term-declines,based on the apex reversal technique gold is likely to bottom next week below 1280,this is our short term target area,however we have other targets too not based on apex reversal or rising support line bused on the nov 2017 low,based on that gold is likely to go down to 1240-1250 target zone,both target areas are valid even more as they are supported by fib retracement levels and on the rally of entire nov2016-jan2018 rally

overall multiple signals are pointing out to much lower prices in gold , silver and mining stocks as we are seeing that movement has been started to build but it's just a beginning big decline is just around the corner,it seems very likely that next 5-8 trading days will be highly volatile and note our words-we will see new 2018 lows shortly

our positions-gold entry-1230 ,stop loss-1386 1st t.p-1280
our position-silver entry-16.700 stop loss-17.440 T.p-14.630

IF the target areas were reached next week as desribed we can close all the existing position or even reverse our position if market situation will allow us,
we will update you anyways

many regards-neeraj pandey

Related Ideas


You mean gold entry 1330, not 1230. Meanwhile I expect the same to happen with gold and silver.
@fhsk2001 1330 is our entry in gold and 16.700 in silver where we short it
fhsk2001 NeerajPandey
@NeerajPandey, Did you enter short there or you expect the prices to go there and enter short?
@fhsk2001, already entered,we post our article when we entered
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