GOLD H4 04/03 | Last support before potential selling.

Mar 4

If the final demand trendline is broken, the market could shift from a range state to a strong decline phase – a scenario similar to a “big short” when a large number of buying positions are forced to exit. This is also why I maintain the view that 5600 is likely to be a major peak for gold in the first half of 2026.

Recently, the gold market has been strongly supported by geopolitical factors, especially tensions related to the US and Iran, increasing the demand for safe havens. However, if you closely observe the market structure, you can see that the current uptrend shows many signs of a liquidity trap rather than a sustainable uptrend. When prices are pushed up by news, FOMO sentiment often appears, leading to a large accumulation of buying positions at high price levels. This is a common condition before the market enters a strong correction phase.

From a technical perspective on the H4 frame, gold still maintains a medium-term uptrend structure with higher lows forming along the demand trendline. However, some weakening signals have begun to appear. The price failed when approaching the supply zone around 5400+, where liquidity is concentrated above. Subsequently, the market began to break the short-term uptrend line and return to the FVG area combined with fibo 0.382 – 0.5, indicating that buying power is gradually decreasing. Currently, the entire uptrend structure is being held by the demand trendline below, and this can be seen as the last line of defense for buyers at this stage.

If the support area around 5050–5100 continues to hold, gold could completely see a technical rebound back to the 5200–5300 area, maintaining a sideways state in a wide range. However, the more important scenario lies in the possibility of this trendline being broken. Once the uptrend structure on H4 is broken, the market could quickly shift to a markdown phase. Below the current area, liquidity is relatively “thin,” so when the cash flow begins to exit the trapped buying positions, the price could completely open up a very steep decline.

In that case, the next liquidity zones could be around 4900–4800, and if selling pressure continues, the market could even return to the 4500+ area. This is also why I maintain the view that 5600 is likely to be a major peak for gold in the first half of 2026, especially if the current structure shifts from accumulation to distribution.

In summary, in the short term, gold may still have technical rebounds, but the overall picture shows that the market is approaching a decisive point. If the final demand trendline is broken, the market could shift from a range state to a strong decline phase – a scenario similar to a “big short” when a large number of buying positions are forced to exit.

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Mar 5

Note

Update Plan GOLD 04/03 – Retest Supply and Key Decision Zone

The latest developments show the market is following the retest scenario after breaking the previous short-term uptrend line. The price has returned to the confluence zone of FVG + fibo 0.5 around 5200, which often acts as a new supply area after the structure is broken.

On the H4 frame, the upward momentum is clearly weakening. After failing at the 5400+ zone, the market began forming a series of lower reactions and is currently oscillating just below the old trendline. The price returning to this area indicates a technical retest phase, where the market checks liquidity before deciding the next direction.

If gold cannot reclaim and hold above the 5200–5250 zone, this area is likely to continue acting as short-term resistance, thereby maintaining selling pressure in the current structure. In that case, the main scenario remains that the market extends the decline to the lower liquidity zones around 5000, and further down could target 4900–4800.

Conversely, if the price holds the demand trendline and returns above 5250, the market may continue to oscillate within the range and form a technical rebound before approaching the upper supply zone again.

In summary, the current FVG + fibo 0.5 zone is the decision zone of the H4 structure. The price reaction here will confirm whether gold is merely in a technical rebound or starting a stronger decline as mentioned in the big short scenario in plan 04/03.