Gold Is Entering a Critical Zone — Could Wave C Expand Next Week?
On the D1 timeframe, gold is approaching a highly sensitive phase as the previous buying structure is no longer maintaining the same strong momentum seen earlier in the trend. Instead of continuing to break higher, price is now reacting more clearly around major liquidity areas, while signs of a broader corrective structure are beginning to appear.
What stands out here is that after the strong impulsive rally, the market has started to form a more corrective pattern, with the possibility of developing into an A-B-C structure. In that context, next week may become a key period to determine whether gold is only experiencing a technical pullback, or whether it is truly entering a deeper Wave C decline on the daily chart.
How Is the Fundamental Backdrop Affecting Gold?
This week, the U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in four months, reflecting a return of defensive capital flows across the market. In most cases, a stronger dollar tends to create downside pressure on gold.
At the same time, however, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report unexpectedly showed a decline of 92,000 jobs in February, suggesting that the labor market may be losing strength. This adds uncertainty to growth expectations and monetary policy outlook, which still supports gold’s role as a defensive asset over the medium term.
In other words, gold is currently being influenced by two opposing forces:
A stronger USD, which creates short-term pressure
Growing concerns around economic slowdown and defensive demand, which continue to support gold at lower levels
This tension is exactly why the technical structure on the D1 timeframe matters even more at this stage.
Technical View on the D1 Chart
1. Overall Structure
From a broader perspective, gold remains inside a corrective phase following the strong rally that came before. Bullish momentum has slowed, recovery attempts are no longer as clean or sustained, and selling pressure is starting to appear more clearly at higher levels.
The descending trendline above price is now acting as dynamic resistance, limiting the strength of rebound attempts. This suggests that buyers have not yet regained clear control on the daily timeframe.
2. Corrective Wave Structure
Based on the current formation, the market may be developing an A-B-C correction:
Wave A represents the initial sharp decline from the top
Wave B is the rebound phase, but it failed to fully reclaim the major resistance zone
Wave C could become the next leg lower, extending toward deeper demand zones
The key point here is that Wave B reacted near diagonal resistance and failed to confirm a renewed buying continuation. This increases the probability that the market may continue into a broader Wave C move.
3. Key Liquidity Zones
The 4,848 – 4,992 area is currently the most important liquidity zone to watch. This is not only a horizontal support region, but also an area where stronger market reaction could emerge if price continues to decline.
If this zone fails to hold, the corrective structure may expand more clearly, opening the path toward 4,205, which is marked as the potential completion area for Wave C.
Below that, the region around 4,000 stands out as a major daily order block, and also a deep higher-timeframe demand zone. If price eventually reaches this area, it would become a critical region to monitor for absorption and a possible structural reaction.
Important Technical Levels
Near-term resistance:
The rebound high of Wave B and the descending diagonal resistance above
Major medium-term liquidity zone:
4,848 – 4,992
Potential Wave C completion zone:
4,205
Major D1 Order Block:
Around 4,000
Trading Scenarios for Next Week
Scenario 1: Wave C Continues to Expand
This remains the preferred scenario if price continues to get rejected around the current rebound zone and fails to reclaim the upper resistance structure.
In this case, the market may continue lower toward 4,848 – 4,992 to test liquidity.
If buying pressure in this zone is not strong enough, Wave C may extend further down toward 4,205, and possibly even deeper toward 4,000.
This scenario fits the current structure well, especially since the rebound from Wave B has not been strong enough to invalidate the broader corrective outlook.
Scenario 2: Technical Rebound from Major Liquidity
If price reacts positively around 4,848 – 4,992, gold may form a technical rebound back toward the upper resistance zone.
However, at this stage, any upside move should still be treated as a corrective rebound unless price is able to break above the key resistance structure and confirm a renewed buying trend on the D1 timeframe.
In other words, gold needs to show much more than a simple bounce from support before the broader trend can be considered bullish again.
What to Watch Next Week
The most important point right now is not to predict with certainty whether gold will rise or fall, but to closely observe how price reacts around major liquidity zones.
Next week, all focus should remain on the 4,848 – 4,992 zone.
This area will likely determine whether gold is only going through a normal correction, or whether it is entering the final stages of a broader Wave C decline on the daily chart.
If price reacts weakly there, downside pressure may accelerate quickly.
On the other hand, if clear absorption and strong buying interest appear, the market may need more time to consolidate before choosing a new direction.
Conclusion
Overall, gold on the D1 timeframe is showing signs of a more complete corrective structure after its previous strong advance. With the U.S. dollar remaining firm in the short term, while weaker labor data adds uncertainty to the macro environment, gold is now entering a highly sensitive zone both fundamentally and technically.
At this stage, the probability of gold developing into a broader Wave C move next week remains the more important scenario to monitor, especially if rebound attempts continue to stay capped below major resistance.
If you are interested in a market approach based on structure, liquidity, and price behavior, follow the channel to continue sharing deeper market perspectives in the next analyses.
On the D1 timeframe, gold is approaching a highly sensitive phase as the previous buying structure is no longer maintaining the same strong momentum seen earlier in the trend. Instead of continuing to break higher, price is now reacting more clearly around major liquidity areas, while signs of a broader corrective structure are beginning to appear.
What stands out here is that after the strong impulsive rally, the market has started to form a more corrective pattern, with the possibility of developing into an A-B-C structure. In that context, next week may become a key period to determine whether gold is only experiencing a technical pullback, or whether it is truly entering a deeper Wave C decline on the daily chart.
How Is the Fundamental Backdrop Affecting Gold?
This week, the U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in four months, reflecting a return of defensive capital flows across the market. In most cases, a stronger dollar tends to create downside pressure on gold.
At the same time, however, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report unexpectedly showed a decline of 92,000 jobs in February, suggesting that the labor market may be losing strength. This adds uncertainty to growth expectations and monetary policy outlook, which still supports gold’s role as a defensive asset over the medium term.
In other words, gold is currently being influenced by two opposing forces:
A stronger USD, which creates short-term pressure
Growing concerns around economic slowdown and defensive demand, which continue to support gold at lower levels
This tension is exactly why the technical structure on the D1 timeframe matters even more at this stage.
Technical View on the D1 Chart
1. Overall Structure
From a broader perspective, gold remains inside a corrective phase following the strong rally that came before. Bullish momentum has slowed, recovery attempts are no longer as clean or sustained, and selling pressure is starting to appear more clearly at higher levels.
The descending trendline above price is now acting as dynamic resistance, limiting the strength of rebound attempts. This suggests that buyers have not yet regained clear control on the daily timeframe.
2. Corrective Wave Structure
Based on the current formation, the market may be developing an A-B-C correction:
Wave A represents the initial sharp decline from the top
Wave B is the rebound phase, but it failed to fully reclaim the major resistance zone
Wave C could become the next leg lower, extending toward deeper demand zones
The key point here is that Wave B reacted near diagonal resistance and failed to confirm a renewed buying continuation. This increases the probability that the market may continue into a broader Wave C move.
3. Key Liquidity Zones
The 4,848 – 4,992 area is currently the most important liquidity zone to watch. This is not only a horizontal support region, but also an area where stronger market reaction could emerge if price continues to decline.
If this zone fails to hold, the corrective structure may expand more clearly, opening the path toward 4,205, which is marked as the potential completion area for Wave C.
Below that, the region around 4,000 stands out as a major daily order block, and also a deep higher-timeframe demand zone. If price eventually reaches this area, it would become a critical region to monitor for absorption and a possible structural reaction.
Important Technical Levels
Near-term resistance:
The rebound high of Wave B and the descending diagonal resistance above
Major medium-term liquidity zone:
4,848 – 4,992
Potential Wave C completion zone:
4,205
Major D1 Order Block:
Around 4,000
Trading Scenarios for Next Week
Scenario 1: Wave C Continues to Expand
This remains the preferred scenario if price continues to get rejected around the current rebound zone and fails to reclaim the upper resistance structure.
In this case, the market may continue lower toward 4,848 – 4,992 to test liquidity.
If buying pressure in this zone is not strong enough, Wave C may extend further down toward 4,205, and possibly even deeper toward 4,000.
This scenario fits the current structure well, especially since the rebound from Wave B has not been strong enough to invalidate the broader corrective outlook.
Scenario 2: Technical Rebound from Major Liquidity
If price reacts positively around 4,848 – 4,992, gold may form a technical rebound back toward the upper resistance zone.
However, at this stage, any upside move should still be treated as a corrective rebound unless price is able to break above the key resistance structure and confirm a renewed buying trend on the D1 timeframe.
In other words, gold needs to show much more than a simple bounce from support before the broader trend can be considered bullish again.
What to Watch Next Week
The most important point right now is not to predict with certainty whether gold will rise or fall, but to closely observe how price reacts around major liquidity zones.
Next week, all focus should remain on the 4,848 – 4,992 zone.
This area will likely determine whether gold is only going through a normal correction, or whether it is entering the final stages of a broader Wave C decline on the daily chart.
If price reacts weakly there, downside pressure may accelerate quickly.
On the other hand, if clear absorption and strong buying interest appear, the market may need more time to consolidate before choosing a new direction.
Conclusion
Overall, gold on the D1 timeframe is showing signs of a more complete corrective structure after its previous strong advance. With the U.S. dollar remaining firm in the short term, while weaker labor data adds uncertainty to the macro environment, gold is now entering a highly sensitive zone both fundamentally and technically.
At this stage, the probability of gold developing into a broader Wave C move next week remains the more important scenario to monitor, especially if rebound attempts continue to stay capped below major resistance.
If you are interested in a market approach based on structure, liquidity, and price behavior, follow the channel to continue sharing deeper market perspectives in the next analyses.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.