GOLD WILL FOOL YOU THIS FOMC

So Wednesday is going to be very interesting because the market structure itself has become quite complex, and on top of that we have the **FOMC press conference**, which will make the situation even more volatile. Now let’s understand what I expect from gold on Wednesday and what my plan of action will be.

Overall, the $4600 breakdown that we were expecting has already played out. Along with that, the support zone I mentioned around $4557–$4575 has shown a reaction, and we’re seeing a move up in gold. But this move should not be treated as a clean reversal — it’s more likely a setup to trap late sellers who entered at the bottom, and also to give false hope to bulls who already gave up.

If you look at Tuesday, both $4700 and $4600 — two major psychological levels — were broken in a single day. This created panic in the market. Smart traders sold from the top, but retail traders entered late sells near the bottom. That’s exactly why my focus is now on those late sellers.

Now the market has closed near $4600, so a lot of traders are holding sell positions below this level expecting further downside. But it won’t be that easy. Many traders will expect the same type of move as Tuesday during the Asian session — and that’s exactly where the trap will be. Not just sellers, but even buyers can get trapped on Wednesday before the real move begins.

I expect the market to open flat or with a small gap up — just enough to trap those who sold near $4600. After that, I’m expecting a downside move initially. This will make people believe that the same bearish continuation from Tuesday is happening again, and many will start selling aggressively.

But as soon as maximum participants shift to selling, I’m expecting a reversal during the Asian session. After the market opens, whatever high is formed in the Asian session will become an important target zone.

The key psychology here is that after such a strong fall, most traders will try to catch the top instead of buying. That’s exactly the opportunity we need to use.

My plan is simple: as selling increases, I will look to trap those sellers. The reason is that most of these sellers will be late entrants, and the market rarely rewards late sellers easily.

Also, in the previous analysis, I mentioned the $4644 level — which was acting as strong support for several days. Gold was trying to sustain above it, but once it broke, we saw a sharp downside move. Now, an important observation is that the breakdown happened directly, which means many traders had sell limit orders below $4644 and are still holding those positions expecting big profits.

But I believe until these traders are forced out — until the market makes them feel that buying is the right move — we won’t see a clean continuation down. So first, the plan is to trap sellers with zig-zag movements.

Once traders who sold below $4644 also get trapped and buyers start entering confidently at higher levels, that’s when the market can again reverse and trap buyers, leading to another downside move.

Also, keep in mind that the FOMC press conference is just 2 hours before market close. On such days, the market needs liquidity — which is why both buyers and sellers are often confused and trapped before the real move happens.

So overall, the plan is:

First trap sellers → then attract buyers → then trap buyers → and finally the real move.

I hope this analysis makes logical sense and helps you prepare better for trading gold.

Good luck — trade smart and stay disciplined.